Area Forecast Discussion
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074 FXUS62 KTAE 261838 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 238 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A ridge continues to build in from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will dissipate around sunset. There is only a slight chance for convection in the coastal waters overnight. Expect mostly clear skies tonight. Winds will be light and southwesterly. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Ridging will continue to build in over the region on Sunday. Expect little in the way of storm development on Sunday afternoon. As a result, the building ridge and mostly sunny skies should result in temperatures warming into the mid to upper 90s. The new MAV guidance showing a couple of locations with temperatures 100 degrees or warmer seem a little suspect. In any event, temperatures in the upper 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to afternoon heat indices in the 103 to 107 degree range, or just below heat advisory criteria. Future shifts will make the assessment for any advisories for Sunday. On Monday, the ridge will break down as a trough moves into the Tennessee River Valley pushing a cold front toward the Gulf Coast States. Expect this boundary to help focus afternoon and evening storm development, especially across Srn GA/AL where rain chances have been increased to around 50 percent. With a weakening ridge and scattered storms, expect highs only in the mid 90s. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement in the amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough through the long term period. As the trough deepens on Monday night into Tuesday, expect a cold front to move through the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. While there are some slight differences on timing and magnitude of the cooler and drier air behind this frontal boundary, there is good agreement now that the front will clear to the south. Dry conditions should be in place across the region from Tuesday evening into Thursday. This interval will also feature some cool overnight lows, possibly dipping into the lower 60s in the colder spots across Southern Alabama. Even in the Florida Big Bend, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings should drop into the upper 60s or just a bit cooler. Records for this period at Tallahassee are as follows: July 30 - 67 (1927) July 31 - 63 (1896) Aug 1 - 64 (1993) By Thursday afternoon, moisture will begin to increase once again across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main upper trough moves into the forecast area. Unsettled conditions look to return Friday and into next weekend with rain chances increasing considerably. While overnight lows will return to climatological norms for early August, daytime temperatures will still be below normal due to plenty of convective activity.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast period. The only exception may be TLH. Moisture near the sfc may condense in the early morning hours in the form of scattered low cloud or mist. However it is not expected to be thick enough to form a ceiling or fog. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms near ECP, VLD and TLH this afternoon with drier conditions expected at ABY and DHN. Winds will be light and southwesterly.
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&& .Marine...
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Moderate westerly flow will persist into Monday when winds will increase to cautionary levels into Tuesday ahead of a cold front moving into the marine area. This cold front will pass south of the waters on Tuesday evening with lighter winds returning.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although high dispersion values are expected Sunday afternoon across inland Florida big bend and south central Georgia.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but is not forecast to reach flood stage. All other area rivers are below bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall the next few days but widespread impacts are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 96 78 96 75 / 30 10 10 30 30 Panama City 78 93 79 91 77 / 20 10 10 30 30 Dothan 75 97 77 94 71 / 20 10 10 50 40 Albany 75 97 78 95 72 / 20 10 10 50 40 Valdosta 73 98 77 98 73 / 30 10 10 30 30 Cross City 73 95 76 94 76 / 20 10 10 20 30 Apalachicola 77 91 79 92 78 / 20 10 10 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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