Area Forecast Discussion
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303
FXUS62 KTAE 121953
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected to continue into
tonight thanks to a ridge of surface high pressure. Probabilistic
guidance such as the SREF does indicate the possibility of some fog
overnight, especially further west in our area. With a relatively
stagnant pattern and some patchy fog being observed last night, we
have included patchy fog wording in the grids.

&&

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Another fair and quite warm day is on tap to finish the weekend with
highs ranging from the upper 70s near the coast to the high end of
the middle 80s well inland on Sunday, as the weak ridge of high
pressure remains in control over the area. As this ridge begins to
slide eastward, more humid air will begin to advect in off the Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday night and Monday, which will also be accompanied
by increasing cloudiness ahead of the next developing upper level
low pressure system to our west. Lows on Sunday night should range
from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south, with highs on
Monday a few degrees cooler than on Sunday with less afternoon
sunshine. Also, while the timing is still a bit uncertain, scattered
showers and thunderstorms may reach the CWA during the afternoon
hours, while the threat for any severe weather or heavy rainfall and
potential flooding concerns should hold off until Monday night and
Tuesday. Nevertheless, by Monday night PoPs should range from 30 to
40 percent across the SE 1/3 of the region, then gradually increase
to 40 to 60 percent across most of the CWA, with even some 70 to 80
percent rain chances across SE AL and the western FL Panhandle by
close to sunrise on Tuesday morning.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
After our reasonably long respite from the unsettled weather (given
the nature of the extremely progressive and active upper level
pattern this spring) which has lasted from last Wednesday through
the first half of this weekend, signs of yet another developing
shortwave to our west are already taking shape to impact our weather
early next week. As was the case on Friday, the Global models are
still in reasonable agreement of a steep upper level trof carving
its way down to the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday into Wednesday
before gradually pulling away to our NE. The main differences
between the GFS and ECMWF are the timing and duration of this
potential severe weather and likely heavy rainfall maker, with the
ECMWF leaning towards a more bleak solution, with the possibility of
a very heavy round or two of precip both over our CWA and upstream,
which would exacerbate the flooding on many of our rivers and
streams which are still quite high and recovering from the last
flooding event. For now, the GFS is significantly faster, and while
both models could still pose a severe weather threat (which we will
be examining more closely over the next couple of days), the overall
flooding impacts would be lower given the GFS solution with any
significant impacts likely over by the end of the day on Tuesday.
Thereafter, fair and near seasonable conditions should return for
the balance of the week, with the next chance for inclement weather
returning on Friday into Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...
[through 18z Sunday] VFR conditions should continue to prevail
across the region and at all terminals for much of the TAF period.
The exception would be the possibility of some MVFR visibilities in
fog around daybreak Sunday - mainly 09z to 13z.

&&

.Marine...
Generally light east to southeasterly winds this evening are
expected to increase to just below cautionary levels late tonight
into Sunday as the pressure pattern briefly tightens. Then, onshore
winds and seas will remain light to moderate through Monday before
increasing to at least cautionary levels out of the southwest on
Monday night into Tuesday out ahead of the next low pressure system
and cold frontal boundary. In its wake, cautionary to possibly
advisory level offshore winds and seas are expected to move into the
marine area on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several afternoons. Some high dispersions are possible in
parts of our Florida zones on Sunday. The next wetting rains should
arrive late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most rivers have reached their peak and are generally falling. The
only exceptions are the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce and
Ochlockonee River at Havana. The Ochlockonee River at Concord is
continuing a broad crest today and the Withlacoochee at Valdosta
peaked right at minor flood stage early this morning.

The next chance of rainfall is Monday through Tuesday night. At this
time the system looks progressive enough to keep rainfall totals
around 1.5-3", with higher rainfall totals north and west of the
line from Apalachicola to Tallahassee to Fitzgerald. These totals
will be too low for flash flooding to be a main concern...however,
this may slow the decreases on already swollen rivers and may even
cause a few to return to bankfull or minor flood stage by later in
the week.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  84  61  83  64 /   0   0  10  30  40
Panama City   62  79  64  77  64 /   0   0  10  30  60
Dothan        58  83  60  80  59 /   0   0  10  50  70
Albany        57  82  59  80  61 /   0   0  10  30  60
Valdosta      56  87  60  85  63 /   0   0  10  20  40
Cross City    55  84  61  83  64 /   0   0  10  20  30
Apalachicola  63  78  65  77  66 /   0   0  10  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD/MOORE






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