Area Forecast Discussion
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274 FXUS62 KTAE 292007 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOWER 40S) WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. .SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]... AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT, DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]... AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT DHN MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
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&& .MARINE...
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QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 43 78 58 81 61 / 10 30 30 30 20 PANAMA CITY 55 74 64 75 66 / 10 30 30 20 10 DOTHAN 49 78 55 78 60 / 10 50 20 40 30 ALBANY 46 76 53 79 58 / 10 50 20 30 20 VALDOSTA 43 77 54 79 59 / 10 30 30 20 20 CROSS CITY 40 76 57 81 61 / 0 0 20 20 10 APALACHICOLA 51 75 63 77 66 / 0 20 20 20 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA- INLAND WAKULLA-LEON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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