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117 FXUS62 KTAE 181435 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1035 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Deep layer ridging over the southeastern CONUS will allow the sea-breeze to be the main driver of our local weather today. The 12Z TAE sounding showed 1000-700mb flow was from the west at over 10 knots, which is our regime 5 sea-breeze pattern. The PWAT value of 1.85", which is 98% of the normal value. Overall, we`re expecting a pretty typical regime 5 day, with chances for afternoon thunderstorms highest over north Florida, but with slightly more coverage than normal for this pattern over our southeast Alabama counties to account for storms coming into the area from the west. Highs today will be in the mid 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Tuesday] Showers and thunderstorms today will affect ECP, TLH, VLD, and DHN and then clear out in the evening. Winds will generally be from the west at 10 kts or less, with gustier winds during thunderstorms.
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&& .Prev Discussion [307 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... A fairly potent shortwave will pass through northern Georgia on Tuesday. A spoke of energy extending south of the main shortwave is forecast to spread into the forecast area by afternoon. This energy should help to somewhat counter the otherwise less favorable westerly low-level flow pattern to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Despite the scattered storms, the westerly low-level flow will support temperatures in the mid 90s during the afternoon. Overall precip coverage will likely be lower on Wednesday as the low-level flow becomes more northwesterly as the mid-level ridge builds just west of the forecast area. The northwesterly flow will be warmer as well, with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon highs. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... Through much of the extended period, high pressure will shift northward/inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly to northwesterly and then variable. This will mean even less moisture transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this time of year. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid 70s. .Marine... High pressure will remain situated over the central Gulf through this week, keeping winds out of the west of southwest and generally below 15 knots outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. No headlines are anticipated this week. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 76 94 75 97 / 50 10 40 30 40 Panama City 93 79 91 78 92 / 40 20 30 20 20 Dothan 94 74 93 73 96 / 40 20 40 20 20 Albany 95 74 94 75 97 / 40 20 30 20 30 Valdosta 96 73 93 74 96 / 40 20 40 30 30 Cross City 94 75 93 74 94 / 40 10 30 20 20 Apalachicola 90 79 91 77 92 / 40 20 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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