Area Forecast Discussion
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381 FXUS62 KTAE 160702 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 302 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A ridge of surface high pressure will settle into the Southeast underneath weakening northwest flow aloft. This should maintain the deep layer of dry air in place across the region. The net result for our forecast is sunny skies and dry weather. Models indicate that the boundary layer average temperature may warm slightly today as compared to yesterday, but the difference should be negligible overall. This should result in high temperatures close to yesterday, from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal through Friday as the upper low over the Great Lakes lifts northeast. By Saturday, the eastern trough is forecast to deepen and push a dry cold front towards the Gulf Coast. For tonight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s as high pressure centered over the forecast area will allow for good radiational cooling conditions. The increasingly zonal upper flow for Friday into Saturday will yield milder temperatures (lower 80s Friday afternoon to mid 80s Saturday afternoon). No rain is expected through Saturday. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... A deep trough will remain over eastern CONUS bringing strong northwesterly flow aloft. At the sfc, no significant features are expected to develop. This means drier cooler air through the extended period with no rain expected. A low is expected to develop over the Gulf and linger there for several days. The coastal waters could see some cloud cover from this low, but rain is unlikely. Highs will hold steady in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals with mostly clear skies.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will continue to diminish today as high pressure east from the western Gulf of Mexico. Light winds and low seas will then continue through the weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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RH values the next couple days should fall to between 30-35% at most locations. While this is a dry air mass, it is not sufficient for red flag conditions. Increasing moisture is expected this weekend, although chances for rain will remain low.
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&& .Hydrology...
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There are no flooding concerns at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 79 47 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 56 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 77 48 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 78 48 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 50 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 80 48 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 55 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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