Area Forecast Discussion
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247 FXUS62 KTAE 200219 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Temperatures are falling rapidly across the region, with freezing or sub-freezing temps already observed across most of our inland areas as of 02z. The widespread freeze is already occurring and a hard freeze is likely across much of the FL Big Bend, north FL, and extreme south central GA. Lows in this area (away from the beaches and cities) will be in the 20 to 25 deg range. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 20s (except lower 30s at the beaches and cities). .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... After another cold start on Thursday morning, a warming trend will begin across the region as high pressure centered over the region lifts further northward up the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Mid Atlantic. There`s the potential for one last night of freezing conditions Thursday night as high pressure remains close enough to the region to support calm winds, and with clear and dry conditions, temperatures should fall into the lower 30s, over the typically colder areas of the Florida Big Bend (Tallahassee-Perry- Cross City). By Friday, easterly flow will transport Atlantic moisture into the region. This pattern will result in temperatures nearer to normal for late November with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 40s for Friday. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... The weather pattern continues to transition on Saturday as a strong mid level shortwave moves into Western Texas sparking cyclogenesis across the Western Gulf. The global models are in good agreement with the large scale details of this system, transitioning into the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Saturday night and then shifting rapidly northward into the Western Great Lakes by Sunday night. As this system lifts northward, a surface warm front will move north out of the Gulf of Mexico and move through the Southeast. As is often the case with these events following an arctic outbreak, there`s uncertainty whether the cool stable airmass can be sufficiently displaced by a more moist tropical airmass in time to overlay with the best forcing and shear. The 19/12z GFS and to a lesser extent in the 19/12z Euro show the warm front making decent progress inland, suggesting that a narrow window for strong to severe storms is possible early Sunday and into Sunday afternoon. Of course, confidence at this time range is lower than normal, especially given how much modification is necessary to our current airmass to be able to support surface based convection. As the system occludes over the Great Lakes on Sunday night, a secondary shortwave will move across the Southern States helping to push a cold front through the area on Monday afternoon. While it is still conditional on the amount of instability in place, the kinematic fields suggest the potential for strong storms with this impulse as well, especially across the eastern half of the region. By Tuesday, drier conditions appear likely as high pressure becomes established across the Southeast. A reinforcing shot of cooler air looks to arrive late Wednesday, suggesting the dry conditions will persist through the rest of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] Unrestricted Vis & unlimited cigs will continue.
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&& .Marine... Light to moderate offshore will remain in place through Thursday evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a high pressure area over the Mid Atlantic States and a developing system over the Western Gulf. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory conditions starting on Friday and continuing through Sunday. && .Fire Weather... The relative humidity will still be quite low on Thursday. This combined with elevated ERC values for Leon and Wakulla counties will lead to Red Flag conditions. Also, due to relatively low mixing heights and light transport winds on Thursday, dispersion indices will be low with values as low as the upper teens over inland portions of northwest Florida. Moisture levels will continue to increase later in the week with widespread rains expected over the weekend. && .Hydrology... The storm system for Saturday night through Monday will have the potential to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts, especially if a secondary impulse generates another batch of heavy rainfall on Monday afternoon. However, this system still looks progressive enough at this time, and given the rather dry conditions that have prevailed through the fall, flooding does not appear to be a significant concern outside of the urbanized areas. River levels are currently very low, with plenty of capacity for runoff. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 23 63 31 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 36 63 42 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 30 61 38 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 27 62 35 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 25 62 34 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 23 65 33 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 35 63 39 66 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison. Red Flag Warning from Noon to 5 PM EST Thursday for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for Brooks-Lanier-Lowndes. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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