Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
370 FXUS62 KTAE 240745 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
-- Changed Discussion --
03 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, A MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER OF CLOUDS IS TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 900 MB. EXTENSIVE STRATUS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SOME EROSION OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS IS NEARING OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES. OBVIOUSLY, HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND GREATLY IMPACTS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS RELATIVELY WEAK, THUS THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE QUICKEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S, WHILE STAYING AROUND 70 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY POPS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT WITH UNIMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LOWS NEAR 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... A STRONG COLD FRONT...IN TERMS OF AIRMASS CONTRAST...WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1KFT WILL LOWER TO IFR BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS, THESE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER AT ECP/DHN/TLH, BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN PLACE AT ABY/VLD. AFTER SUNSET, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ABY/VLD AND LIKELY RETURN AT TLH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. RELATIVELY LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODEST RISES IN SOME OF THE LOCAL RIVER STAGES WERE OBSERVED FROM THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALL SITES WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
TALLAHASSEE 76 59 81 59 80 / 0 10 10 10 30 PANAMA CITY 75 62 74 63 76 / 0 10 10 10 30 DOTHAN 76 58 78 59 80 / 0 10 10 10 20 ALBANY 75 58 78 58 81 / 0 10 10 20 20 VALDOSTA 71 59 81 60 81 / 10 10 10 20 20 CROSS CITY 78 60 82 61 83 / 10 10 10 10 20 APALACHICOLA 74 63 74 65 77 / 0 10 10 10 30
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.