Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
178 FXUS62 KTAE 141934 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 334 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN AIRMASS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY PERSISTING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF MOBILE BAY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN IMPULSES OVERNIGHT, SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. .SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]... THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL REMAIN UNDER RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]... THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EURO HAS IT ON MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND THE TROUGH. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS AFTER 05Z AS CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TOWARD MORNING SHOULD THE WINDS GO CALM. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER TO THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET INCREASING TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
A RATHER WET...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
TALLAHASSEE 71 82 68 83 67 / 40 60 50 60 40 PANAMA CITY 72 78 68 79 69 / 50 60 40 60 40 DOTHAN 69 81 65 80 64 / 60 70 50 60 50 ALBANY 69 81 65 78 62 / 50 70 60 60 50 VALDOSTA 70 83 65 82 65 / 30 70 60 60 40 CROSS CITY 71 85 67 83 67 / 20 60 40 60 30 APALACHICOLA 73 80 71 81 71 / 40 50 40 60 30
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...WOOL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.