Area Forecast Discussion
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938
FXUS62 KTAE 191510
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1010 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a 1034 mb high
centered near Columbus, GA. Like Monday, the unusually cold, dry
airmass across our region is shallow, which will help limit
vertical mixing (and warming), despite ample sunshine. Highs will only be
in the lower to mid 50s, which is 10 to 20 deg below average for
this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Thursday] Unrestricted Vis & unlimited cigs will
continue. Winds will be light from the NE, generally less than 10
KT.

&&

.Prev Discussion [401 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
One more very cold night is expected tonight before a moderating
trend begins. With the surface high position expected to be a tad
farther south compared to last night, the coldest temperatures
tonight may actually be across the Florida big bend and adjacent
extreme south-central Georgia where another hard freeze is
possible. Elsewhere, a light freeze is expected away from the
coast. Dry weather will continue through the short term.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By late in the weekend, models are in overall agreement on
swinging a potent upper level shortwave and associated cold front
through the area. Much of the guidance forecasts this trough to
take on a negative tilt just west of the area with a very strong
low-level jet core on the order of 70 knots just northwest of the
area, and 50-60 knots in our forecast area. Shear is forecast to
be quite strong with this system, and both the 00z Euro and GFS
have mid 60s dewpoints returning inland from the coast by 12z
Sunday. With this setup, a strong to severe squall line sweeping
across the area is a possibility from late Saturday night through
Sunday. The main limiting factor will be the uncertainty with the
amount of moisture return and associated instability.

After Sunday, although the shortwave will lift up into the Great
Lakes, longwave troughing will continue west of the area. Another
weaker system could bring us a chance of showers on Monday or
Tuesday.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue to diminish today with conditions
dropping below advisory levels across the offshore water by
mid-morning. Relatively light northeast winds are expected on
Thursday. Winds will gradually veer from east to south and
increase this weekend as a low pressure system develops west of
the area. Advisory conditions are possible as early as Saturday
and become likely by Saturday night into Sunday. In fact, a strong
to severe squall line may sweep across the coastal waters Saturday
night into Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
The red flag warnings will remain in place for today. Southeast AL
will see low RH durations. In FL, it will be durations and high
ERC that meet red flag criteria. The ERC numbers for Bay and
Calhoun Counties in FL were suspiciously low for yesterday, so we
are not quite sure what is going on there. Looking ahead to
tomorrow, RH will still be quite low in the FL Big Bend and Leon
and Wakulla were put under a fire weather watch. Moisture levels
will continue to increase later in the week with a wetting rain
expected over the weekend.


.Hydrology...
The next chance of widespread rain is expected for late Saturday
night through Sunday. While an inch or two of rain is possible,
this will not be enough to cause any flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  23  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   54  37  63  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  30  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  27  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      53  25  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    56  24  65  32  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  36  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday
     for Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-
     Washington.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Wakulla-Leon.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday
     for Brooks-Lanier-Lowndes.

AL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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