Area Forecast Discussion
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102 FXUS62 KTAE 131905 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 305 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed in the northwest half of our forecast area early this afternoon as expected, along and just ahead of a stalled front. Slow storm motions, storm-scale interactions, and the moist environment with PWATs around 2" should contribute to a risk of locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding. Current PoPs of 60-70% seem reasonable and we expect fairly widespread convective activity to begin to consolidate into some larger clusters between 21-00Z, persisting into the 00-04Z timeframe. The convection-allowing models (CAM) continue to be in good agreement regarding convective evolution over the next 6-12 hours, and we followed those trends closely in the forecast. They continue to indicate that thunderstorms should consolidate into the western Florida Panhandle in the hours around and just after sunset. An expanding cold pool in the northwest part of our area could enable some lows from the upper 60s to around 70 in those areas tonight, while low-mid 70s are expected elsewhere. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Deep moisture will linger across the area through the short term with precipitable water values near to slightly above 2 inches at times. A weak boundary will also be bisecting the northern part of the area in an east-west fashion. These factors would argue for fairly high PoPs on Sunday and Monday. However, the ensemble of CAM guidance is quite dry for Sunday afternoon, which lowers confidence a bit. Given the overall large scale pattern, feel the CAM ensemble is a little too dry and stayed with the inherited 40-50% PoPs from the previous forecast. Daytime highs will be mostly in the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south. Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal through most of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] Numerous showers and storms should develop roughly along and northwest of a line from ECP to ABY - or affecting those two terminals along with DHN this afternoon and evening. IFR VIS will be possible in some of the thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Showers and storms are much less likely at TLH and VLD.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will be slightly elevated this weekend as a weak tropical disturbance passes well to the south of the coastal waters. For the early and middle part of next week, a weak surface pressure pattern will return to the marine area, with typically low summertime winds and seas expected. By the end of the week, easterly winds may increase as high pressure builds over the northeast states and the pressure gradient tightens.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent through next week, so no red flag conditions will occur.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Some locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time is possible through this evening with some of the slow moving storms in the area, but widespread heavy amounts are not likely. Isolated instances of flooding could occur, especially if one of the slow moving storms affects an urban area. By the middle of the week, a better chance of more widespread rain is expected, some of which could be occasionally heavy.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 92 72 91 72 / 30 40 20 50 30 Panama City 76 90 75 90 75 / 60 40 20 50 40 Dothan 70 91 72 91 71 / 60 50 30 50 30 Albany 72 92 72 91 71 / 50 50 30 50 30 Valdosta 72 92 71 91 71 / 30 40 30 50 30 Cross City 71 92 71 91 71 / 40 40 20 50 30 Apalachicola 76 89 75 89 75 / 20 40 20 40 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...DVD

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