Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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028
FXUS62 KTAE 150020
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

THE 8 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM OFF THE TX COAST THROUGH NORTHERN AL. OUR FORECAST AREA
WAS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE, WITH
UNUSUALLY HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TRANSLATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL. THOUGH THE STORMS
APPEARED TO BE WEAKENING, THE LATEST HRRR MANAGES TO BRING SOME OF
THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO TALLAHASSEE AND SOUTHWEST GA LATE
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL END EARLIER TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] LIGHT TO MODERATE RA, AND OCCASIONAL +TSRA,
WILL AFFECT KDHN, KECP, AND KABY THROUGH 4Z. SOME OF THIS RAIN MAY
REACH KTLH BY AROUND 6Z. IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS WHERE THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY KDHN
AND KECP, AS WELL AS AT KVLD WHERE THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO REACH.
ELSEWHERE WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [334 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS WILL BE IN
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EURO HAS IT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND THE
TROUGH. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.


.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FEET INCREASING TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A RATHER WET...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP
RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA
RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  82  68  83  67 /  50  60  50  60  40
PANAMA CITY   72  78  68  79  69 /  60  60  40  60  40
DOTHAN        69  81  65  80  64 /  80  70  50  60  50
ALBANY        69  81  65  78  62 /  60  70  60  60  50
VALDOSTA      70  83  65  82  65 /  40  70  60  60  40
CROSS CITY    71  85  67  83  67 /  20  60  40  60  30
APALACHICOLA  73  80  71  81  71 /  50  50  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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