Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 240714
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
214 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The surface cold front is currently moving through the area and
will clear the area by around sunrise. Today will feature clearing
skies, breezy conditions, and seasonably cool temperatures with
daytime highs ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Amplified pattern is forecast to remain in place across the
country through Monday, with a trough over the eastern states.
For Sunday, the region will be between an exiting shortwave (from
Saturday) and an approaching shortwave. With a weak pressure
gradient tonight, temperatures should fall into the lower to mid
30s before moderating into the mid 60s Sunday afternoon.
A potent shortwave will dig into the base of the mean trough
Sunday night into Monday and push a reinforcing cold front through
the forecast area early Monday morning. With very limited deep
layer moisture, no precip is expected with the frontal passage,
but should see cooler temperatures during the day on Monday.
Expect highs ranging from the lower 60s in the southeast to the
lower 50s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The amplified pattern is forecast to continue through much of next
week with northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. This
will keep the weather dry through at least Thursday, with
temperatures running a couple of degrees cooler than normal for
late January. A front will approach the region late in the week,
with the potential for a few showers on Friday. With limited
return flow ahead of this front, significant rainfall seems
unlikely at this time.
[Through 12Z Sunday] The passage of a cold front will bring gusty
west to northwest winds and clearing skies today. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected through mid-morning with clearing skies and
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.
Winds and seas will remain elevated this morning with Small Craft
Advisory conditions continuing until late afternoon. Following a
brief lull tonight and Sunday, winds and seas will increase again
Sunday night as another front pushes across the waters. Advisory
level winds are likely Sunday night through Monday afternoon.
Winds will diminish slightly by Monday night, but remain near
Exercise Caution levels through Wednesday.
Dispersion values will be on the high side this afternoon as well
as Sunday afternoon with strong transport winds behind a cold
front. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns.
A widespread 1.5-3" of rain fell across the area today, with
streaks of 3-6" roughly from Apalachicola to Madison. This has
caused sharp rises along some of our area rivers. Minor flooding
is forecast along the Withlacoochee and Aucilla rivers and is also
possible along the Shoal river today. Within the next week, more
minor flooding will be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee,
and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 58 34 65 43 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 57 40 64 46 57 / 0 0 0 10 0
Dothan 54 35 62 41 54 / 0 0 0 10 0
Albany 55 32 62 41 56 / 0 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 57 34 63 42 59 / 10 0 0 10 10
Cross City 61 32 64 44 61 / 10 0 0 10 0
Apalachicola 59 40 62 49 61 / 0 0 0 10 0
FL...Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal
Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST early this morning for Coastal
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.