Area Forecast Discussion
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344 FXUS62 KTAE 250820 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 320 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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At the Sfc, the cold front has moved out of the CWA and the rain has ended. A deep upper level trough remains upstream over the lower MS River Valley. Therefore, clouds will continue to linger into the morning hours. By mid-morning cooler drier air will be in place for most of the region bringing clear skies and more seasonal temps. Highs today will be in the lower 60s for most of the CWA. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... A mostly clear and chilly night is expected across the region as a continental ridge of high pressure builds in over the CWA. A widespread freeze is not expected, however, with overnight lows generally ranging from the lower to middle 30s north to the middle to upper 30s to the south. This ridge of high pressure will move offshore quickly on Friday, with increasing cloudiness from SW to NE by late in the day. Nevertheless, a moderating trend in high temps can be expected, with highs in the lower to middle 60s to the north and west, and middle to upper 60s to the south and east. Although temperatures will continue to warm on Friday night and Saturday, the cost of this warming will be increasing chances for rain once again. These chances will be slight on Friday night (mainly in the 20s), but will range from 20% over the far SE FL Big Bend, to 60% across much of SE AL, as a warm frontal boundary begins to develop just to the north of the Gulf of Mexico. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... With either upper level ridging or zonal flow expected to dominate over the SE US throughout much of the extended period, a prolonged stretch of above climo temps and PoPs can be anticipated across our region through much of next week. With highs expected to average in the upper 60s to the middle 70s and lows only falling into the lower to middle 50s, this scenario would place most of our region a solid 10 degrees above normal on average, which is very impressive considering the length of time of the long term fcst. Although no major storm systems are expected at this time, rain chances are expected to be higher than average as well. However, nothing like the flooding rains of the past few days is even considered to be a remote possibility.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds will be light and northerly.
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&& .Marine...
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As the ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest, winds and seas continue to gradually decrease across the coastal waters, and the current 1 PM EST expiration time of the Small Craft Advisory appears right on target at this time. Thereafter, as surface ridging builds in over the marine area, a prolonged period of light to moderate winds and seas is expected, but conditions are not expected to reach headline levels at this time.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Recent heavy rainfall and another round of rain over the weekend will keep red flag conditions away for the next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Heavy rainfall over the last few days has resulted in sharp rises for most area rivers and creeks. There will be moderate flooding on the middle Ochlockonee River basin, Sopchoppy River and on the far lower Choctawhatchee. In addition, several rivers will reach minor flood stage, including Kinchafoonee creek, as well as the Withlacoochee and Shoal River near Mossyhead. The next chance for rain will be this weekend with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible over the course of three days (Sat, Sun, Mon). This additional rainfall will likely help keep river levels high.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 62 36 66 50 71 / 0 0 0 20 30 Panama City 60 42 63 55 68 / 0 0 10 20 40 Dothan 59 36 61 49 63 / 0 0 10 20 60 Albany 61 34 63 44 66 / 0 0 0 20 40 Valdosta 62 36 66 47 71 / 0 0 0 10 30 Cross City 65 36 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 Apalachicola 60 44 62 55 66 / 0 0 0 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon all legs.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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