Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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439 FXUS62 KTAE 171932 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 332 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GA/AL/MS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN CLEARLY ON WV IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST IS BEING FORCED IN THE LOW- LEVELS ALONG A WARM FRONT. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO SHOULD THIS AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH REMNANT LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE RAIN. .SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT PATTERN WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, EJECTS EASTWARD TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LOW ON SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY RETURNING TO OUR REGION, WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK LAPSE-RATES, UN-IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES, ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 3-4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN. .LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]... WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR OUR AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS AND TO OUR NORTH. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED , THE DRY AIR WILL NOT STAY LONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THURSDAY POPS WILL ELEVATED, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING SIMILAR THIS THIS PAST WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE DIURNAL AND RANDOM TREND WITHOUT A DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING MECHANISMS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] EXPECT NO BETTER THAN MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. IFR CEILINGS AT DHN MAY TEMPORARILY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION, CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL REIGN OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER BELOW CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE, APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER. HOWEVER, NON OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 68 83 68 80 65 / 50 50 40 50 40 PANAMA CITY 70 78 71 77 70 / 30 50 50 60 40 DOTHAN 65 79 66 77 65 / 50 50 60 70 40 ALBANY 64 79 66 79 64 / 70 40 60 60 40 VALDOSTA 66 83 68 81 65 / 70 40 30 50 40 CROSS CITY 68 82 68 82 67 / 30 40 20 50 40 APALACHICOLA 72 79 73 77 71 / 30 40 40 60 40
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...DVD/DOBBS LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...DVD/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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