Area Forecast Discussion
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492
FXUS62 KTAE 171614
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1214 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Shower and thunderstorms have quickly been developing this morning
across Southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Morning
observational data show the drier airmass that was in place across
the region has moistened considerably with precipitable water
values now above 1.9 inches. While instability is not overly
impressive today (2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE), conditions are still
conducive for numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon hours. Have increased PoPs to 60 percent across much of
the region for this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [635 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Monday will feature a blend of early morning offshore convection,
followed by the seabreeze front generating storms over land during
the afternoon. In the southwesterly flow regime, depending upon
how much offshore convection moves inland early on, it could
disrupt a well defined seabreeze front. This would mean that we
may receive most of our storms early in the day rather than later.
Regardless of exactly how this plays out, the best coverage of
storms will be across north Florida and extreme southwest Georgia.
Monday night into Tuesday morning as shortwave will brush our
northern Georgia and Alabama counties and provide a chance for
showers and thunderstorms overnight. The shortwave will elongate
over the region on Tuesday and provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Expect a widespread scattering of storms on
Tuesday, not related to the seabreeze.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Stacked high pressure through the period will allow the sea-breeze
circulation will once again become the main driving force for our
local weather. With a drier than normal airmass in place, chances
will be somewhat lower than climo and temperatures will be slightly
warmer than climo. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s along the
immediate coast, and lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along
the immediate coast.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]

After a brief period of MVFR/IFR vis this morning, Generally VFR
conditions are excepted. Scattered SHRA/TSRA were developing across
the FL Panhandle, and these will spread inland. KECP has the highest
chance of SHRA/TSRA this morning, and KTLH and KDHN in the
afternoon. Elsewhere we expect the storms to be more isolated. Winds
across the region will be SW around 10 KT by late morning, except
briefly stronger and gusty in TSRA.


.Marine...

Modest southwesterly flow will near cautionary levels at times
over the next couple of days. This will be especially true in the
afternoon near the coast. By Wednesday, the surface ridge should
move closer to our waters, yielding calming winds. Expect
widespread morning showers and thunderstorms for at least the next
few mornings.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Significant rainfall is not expected over the next several days
and all area rivers should remain below action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  75  93  75  95 /  60  20  60  10  40
Panama City   89  79  90  79  90 /  60  20  50  20  30
Dothan        93  75  94  75  93 /  60  40  50  20  40
Albany        93  75  94  76  94 /  50  40  40  20  40
Valdosta      94  73  94  74  95 /  50  20  60  10  40
Cross City    93  74  92  74  93 /  40  20  50  20  20
Apalachicola  89  79  90  80  90 /  60  30  40  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







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