Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
277 FXUS62 KTAE 260325 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong shortave rounding the base of the persistent central U.S. trough is helping to induce sfc cyclogenesis over the Florida Peninsula this evening. This feature is also providing the lift for one more round of light to moderate rain across the forecast area. As this shortwave exits the area late tonight, expect to see the rain come to an end, followed shortly by clearing skies. Back edge of clouds is currently moving into eastern Mississippi. Made a few adjustments to the PoPs this evening based on radar trends, but no other significant changes were needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Thursday] Remaining low cigs at KTLH and KVLD will slowly lift with VFR conditions expected at all terminals by around 10-12UTC. Remaining light rain will also come to an end overnight, with dry conditions on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [240 PM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in our northwestern zones Thursday night. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern states through the long term period. There are no significant chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50. .Marine... Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the remainder of the period. .Fire Weather... Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days, with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points are expected to remain below flood stage.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 45 60 36 63 34 / 100 10 0 0 0 Panama City 43 62 46 62 41 / 100 0 0 0 0 Dothan 42 59 38 58 34 / 100 0 0 0 0 Albany 42 59 35 60 33 / 100 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 44 60 36 61 35 / 100 20 0 0 0 Cross City 49 63 36 64 34 / 90 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 47 62 46 62 40 / 100 0 0 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.