Area Forecast Discussion
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654 FXUS62 KTAE 300720 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 320 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Upper level ridging will dominate the area today. There will still be enough deep moisture and instability around in the afternoon for some scattered convection. The CAM ensemble shows the highest chances across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia with PoPs around 50% expected. Lack of forcing should preclude more widespread coverage today with most convection diminishing after sunset tonight. However, some of the CAMs do hint at isolated to scattered convection lingering past sunset across the eastern sections of the area. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s today with heat indices along the coast approaching 105 in a few spots with high dewpoints. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest 1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal. Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values focused in the afternoon hours each day. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Sunday] Some patches of MVFR visibility are possible around sunrise this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the day outside of scattered afternoon convection. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be around DHN and ABY with somewhat less activity to the south.
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&& .Marine...
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A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds. Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next several days with no fire weather concerns.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 75 95 73 96 / 40 20 40 10 30 Panama City 91 79 92 77 92 / 30 10 30 10 30 Dothan 93 73 95 74 97 / 50 20 30 10 30 Albany 95 74 96 74 96 / 50 40 30 10 30 Valdosta 95 73 94 72 95 / 50 50 40 10 30 Cross City 94 74 93 72 94 / 40 30 40 10 30 Apalachicola 91 78 90 77 91 / 20 10 30 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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