Area Forecast Discussion
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652 FXUS62 KTAE 191459 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1059 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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As of this morning, most locations west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany have seen rain and as we move through today we expect this rain to shift eastwards into the drier portions of our CWA. This mornings sounding reflected a moist atmosphere with a PWAT value of 1.94 inches. Even more impressive was shear values for this time of year. Even with decent shear, instability is missing. The 12z sounding had only 400 J/kg of CAPE and when adjusted for today`s forecasted conditions we only reach 1345 J/kg. Even this value is in doubt considering the extensive cloud debris from morning convection over our western areas. Given these parameters, severe weather is not expected. However, any areas of the forecast region that can break out of the cloud deck, and receive some insolation, strong storms cannot be ruled out. The main risk for today is isolated inland flooding. The highest risk areas for flooding will be our western portions of the forecast area. This morning, many locations in Walton, Washington, and Bay counties have received 3-4 inches with more rain expected this afternoon.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Sunday]... Widespread rain is expected today with occasional rumbles of thunder. Ceilings will periodically dip to MVFR in heavier showers or storms with brief periods of IFR vsby possible at these times as well. Overnight, VFR conditions are forecast.
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&& .Prev Discussion [425 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... Now that the unsettled weather has arrived, it will be in no hurry to exit the region in the now generally stagnant upper level pattern. Although complete washouts are not expected each day and night over the next few days, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated both day and night as an upper level low pressure system essentially parks over our area and does little to move. This blocking pattern will be due in part to the development of a very strong upper level ridge (near 600 dm) over the Rocky Mountain States, where high temps in Denver, CO may reach or exceed 100 degrees. High temps in our region will depend on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall, with any areas that do not see any/many breaks in the overcast remaining in the 80s. A few areas that do see a couple hours of insolation could break the 90 degree mark, but any mid 90s appear out of the question. Finally, although this low pressure system appears to have weakened and the amount of available deep layer moisture decreased from this point in time on Saturday, will still have to keep an eye on Storm Total Rainfall for some potential minor/nuisance flooding in any low lying and poor drainage areas. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons. .Marine... A low pressure system off to our west will increase onshore winds slightly to the west of Apalachicola today and tonight, and a long fetch of southerly winds deep into the Gulf of Mexico will increase seas over our western coastal waters into the 2 to 4 foot range today and into tonight. However, this will be below any headline levels, and further to the east, winds and seas will remain significantly lower. By Sunday and beyond, a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime will return, resulting in light winds and low seas for the rest of the period. .Fire Weather... A moist pattern is expected to persist for the next several days with increased rain chances each afternoon and evening. .Hydrology... Rain chances will be quite a bit higher than recently through the weekend and into early next week. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches to the east through Monday. These rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, although some localized minor flooding in the usual flood prone areas will be possible.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 88 72 89 73 89 / 80 30 60 40 60 Panama City 87 77 87 77 88 / 100 40 50 40 50 Dothan 88 72 88 72 91 / 80 40 50 30 50 Albany 87 73 88 71 88 / 80 40 60 40 60 Valdosta 88 72 91 72 89 / 60 30 60 40 60 Cross City 89 72 91 72 88 / 40 20 60 40 60 Apalachicola 87 76 87 75 88 / 70 30 50 40 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL/DOBBS SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/GOULD

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