Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270049

749 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm regional surface analysis showed a developing low
pressure system, part of the large & powerful snow storm that
will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states, off
the DELMARVA coast. Rather brisk winds between this system and a
surface high to our west were gradually subsiding across our
forecast area as the sun set. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a long wave trough over much of the eastern U.S., and
embedded short wave troughs may bring the northern portions of our
forecast area some clouds at times through Tuesday. Though the
airmass across our region was cool and dry, we expect that the
surface winds will not quite go calm overnight, which should
prevent low temperatures from reaching freezing. Lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 30s.



[Through 00Z Wednesday] Other than some periods of SCT-BKN VFR cigs
around KABY, KDHN, and KVLD through Tuesday, mostly clear skies
and excellent Vis are expected. Winds will be W-NW around 5 KT
overnight, increasing to 10-13 KT (gusts to 20 KT) by mid morning


.Prev Discussion [322 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The high amplitude long wave trough will gradually slide east of
the area during this period with nearly zonal flow in place by
12Z Thursday. Surface high pressure will remain in control of our
weather. Yet another cold front will sweep across the region on
Tuesday, but this should be a dry front. Temps will be close to
seasonal levels Tuesday and just a couple of degrees below normal
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
A northern stream trough will pass well north of the region late in
the week with an upper ridge building east toward the area by the
weekend. Another trough will then push into the eastern U.S. early
next week. At the surface, the next cold front will cross the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning with PoPs in the
slight to low chance range (20-30%). The next system in the pipeline
looks to be a bit more energetic with a front passing west to east
across the forecast area from late Sunday into Monday. PoPs are in
the chance category for now, but will likely increase once our
confidence in the timing of this system becomes more focused.
Daytime highs will be very close to seasonal levels through this
period with overnight lows above normal.

Winds will decrease overnight as the gradient weakens. Conditions
will drop below advisory thresholds across the nearshore legs by
around midnight. Seas will remain elevated offshore and the advisory
will be extended there until Wednesday morning as there will be
another brief increase in winds with the passage of a cold front
Tuesday night. Winds and seas will then remain below headline
criteria from Wednesday through the end of the week despite yet
another cold frontal passage on Friday.

.Fire Weather...
A drier airmass will continue to filter into the region over the
next few days. However, humidity values are forecast to remain above
critical values at least through the middle of the week. With strong
transport winds, dispersion values will be high on Tuesday.

The Aucilla River at Lamont will reach minor flood stage Tuesday
evening and will rise to 54.1 feet on Wednesday. River levels
continue to rise in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee basins which
may reach minor flood stage later in the week.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  64  37  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   45  62  40  57  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        36  60  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        34  59  34  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      36  61  36  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    38  64  36  59  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  44  64  41  59  41 /   0   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf.

     RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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