Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 210114
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
It took most of the day, but the low clouds are finally making
progress out of the area, with only coastal areas of the Big Bend
still socked in. The clouds should continue to diminish overnight
as a ridge builds aloft and low pressure off the east coast moves
away. Main changes to forecast this evening were for cloud cover
and minor adjustments to overnight temperatures.
[Through 00Z Tuesday] Back edge of MVFR stratus deck continues to
move southward having passed the DHN/ABY terminals as of TAF
issuance. Expect clearing conditions at TLH/VLD/ECP by 02z-04z as
the cloud deck continues moving to the south. Surface winds
overnight in the 3 to 5 kt range should limit any fog development.
Expect VFR conditions throughout the day on Monday with only a few
high clouds in the afternoon.
.Prev Discussion [244 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
With deep layer ridging in place through Monday, fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near
climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in
South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the
northwest. Unlike the last couple of systems, this one looks much
weaker with less coverage of rain along with lighter amounts,
which is much more typical for April. Any threat of severe storms
with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and weak
winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the
period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder
of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.
No major systems are expected to affect the area through next
week. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching weak
cold front on Tuesday, but they should remain rather light.
The airmass will dry out on Monday but remain above critical
levels. It will begin to gradually moisten up on Tuesday. Red
Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage
this evening. Other points reaching moderate flood stage are:
Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at
Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana. Rainfall with
Tuesday`s system is expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 53 79 52 83 60 / 0 0 0 20 10
Panama City 58 75 59 77 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
Dothan 52 79 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 40 20
Albany 51 80 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 40 20
Valdosta 51 78 50 83 59 / 0 0 0 20 20
Cross City 53 79 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 57 73 57 77 62 / 0 0 0 10 10