Area Forecast Discussion
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394 FXUS62 KTAE 280853 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION, HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY, BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE DIFFERENT CRITERIA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 64 39 68 46 78 / 0 10 0 10 20 PANAMA CITY 63 45 65 56 75 / 0 10 0 10 10 DOTHAN 59 38 65 50 77 / 10 0 10 20 30 ALBANY 59 36 64 47 77 / 10 0 0 20 30 VALDOSTA 63 38 68 44 76 / 0 10 0 10 20 CROSS CITY 65 38 69 42 76 / 0 10 0 0 10 APALACHICOLA 65 45 65 54 74 / 0 0 0 10 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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