Area Forecast Discussion
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680 FXUS62 KTAE 301032 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 632 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT DHN THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THESE STORMS. AFTER 06Z EXPECT MVFR AT DHN, ABY, TLH AND VLD FOR FOG.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [348 AM EDT]...
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.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]... SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE IN A MARGINAL RISK TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REACH THE LOW 60S. WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ECPECT STORMS TO BE ISOLATED RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW STORMS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AND ENDING BY 00Z. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... WE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ROUGHLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LIKE WE EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON...MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE UNUSUALLY STEEP...WHICH COULD HELP PROMOTE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL GROWTH. THE FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KT...WHICH IS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT NOT PROHIBITVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN (20-30 PERCENT). A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NOTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS NEAR 60 AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]... FAST ZONAL (AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT) FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A FEW FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR REGION. THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF THESE WILL BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THOSE APRIL FRONTS THAT LIMPS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY SO...WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60 SATURDAY...THEN LOW TO MID 50S (BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) SUNDAY. .MARINE... RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS. THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS. .HYDROLOGY... ALL RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS WEEK AS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ENOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THEIR STAGES.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 79 57 80 60 82 / 30 20 20 10 30 PANAMA CITY 74 63 74 65 75 / 30 20 20 10 20 DOTHAN 78 55 79 61 79 / 50 20 30 20 30 ALBANY 76 52 79 59 79 / 50 10 20 30 30 VALDOSTA 78 54 79 59 80 / 30 20 20 20 30 CROSS CITY 76 57 79 60 81 / 0 20 10 10 20 APALACHICOLA 75 64 75 65 77 / 20 20 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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