Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
935 FXUS62 KTAE 152048 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 348 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper low will lift northeast into the southern Great Lakes overnight dragging a trailing cold front into the forecast area by morning. Any significant lift and deep moisture is forecast to remain well north of the area, with just some scattered light showers expected at the southern end of the system. Brief period of return flow just ahead of the front will keep temperatures milder across the western half of the area. To the east towards the Suwannee River Valley, cooler overnight lows are expected with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s as winds go calm. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A mid-upper level low, currently evident on water vapor satellite loops centered over northern Missouri, should slowly lift into Lower Michigan by tomorrow morning. With most of the mid-upper level height falls focused well north of our area, the cold front approaching from the west should be weakening with time. In fact, the 500mb heights are forecast to rise over the next 24 hours over our forecast area. Therefore, we expect fairly weak forcing along the cold front, with a broken line of showers. Hi-res guidance suggests that most locales could see rain, but the rain totals will be rather light and the duration very short (1-hr or less). Temperatures ahead of the cold front should be above normal. Dry weather with clearing skies is expected for the remainder of the short term period as the shallow front passes by and a ridge of surface high pressure builds in underneath zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will cool closer to seasonal normals. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Although zonal flow over the southern US will be the predominant pattern through much of the extended forecast period, global models do consistently show a deamplifying wave ejecting from Texas to the Southeast on Friday to Saturday. In general, they are depicting a surface low to develop somewhere in the vicinity of the Gulf coast, although the details have been quite variable among different model runs. For now we are forecasting the best rain chances on Friday Night and Saturday, and some thunderstorms will be possible too. Temperatures will be steady near seasonal normals for much of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions and light winds will continue into the evening. Clouds will increase and gradually lower overnight from west to east. May see VFR conditions by sunrise with scattered light showers. Have left fog out of the KVLD TAF at the moment. However, some light fog is possible around sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southwesterly winds will increase tonight as the cold front approaches. 15-20 knot winds appear likely enough west of Apalachicola to warrant a SCEC headline for those legs, mainly for the 06-18Z period. The next significant increase in winds should be later Friday or Saturday as the next low pressure system approaches the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, with rain possible tomorrow and early this weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 49 76 42 65 39 / 0 30 0 0 0 Panama City 59 71 46 61 47 / 20 40 0 0 0 Dothan 54 69 40 62 39 / 30 40 0 0 0 Albany 47 71 38 63 36 / 20 40 0 0 0 Valdosta 41 73 41 64 38 / 0 30 0 0 0 Cross City 40 74 43 68 38 / 0 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 57 72 46 62 45 / 0 30 0 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.