Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 161836
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Rest of today and tonight]...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were developing in a
broad zone of low level convergence across the FL Big Bend and
Panhandle this early afternoon, associated with a weakening
quasi-stationary frontal zone. Very dry air aloft is likely to
limit the depth of most of this convection, thus reducing the
threat for severe storms. This activity will propagate slowly
northward later today into south GA and AL, but our PoP decreases
to less than 20% from Albany northward, where there will be less
CAPE due to the relatively dry boundary layer.
As is often the case this time of year, most of the showers and
thunderstorms will diminish by sunset, but additional convection is
possible along the FL Panhandle coast early Monday morning. Areas
of fog and low clouds are possible regionwide. Lows will be in
the lower to mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A couple of weak shortwaves will affect the area through the short
term period. As deep layer moisture continues to gradually
increase, an increase in convective coverage is expected across
the northern and western portions of the forecast area closest to
the best lift. The 12z run of our local ARW shows a couple of
stronger storms on Monday, which can`t be ruled out, but any
severe threat should remain isolated and brief as is typical for
summer. A similar scenario is again expected on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal average.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale system are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
[Through 18z Monday] Scattered TSRA are expected this afternoon
and early evening, mainly south of a line from KABY to KTOI. Any
disruption to airport operations should be temporary and brief,
generally lasting less than one hours. Otherwise, prevailing VFR
conditions and light S-SW winds will continue into tonight. Some
of the NWP guidance suggests a good chance of low cigs and/or
patchy fog around dawn on Monday, but it`s still unclear how low
and widespread the vis/cigs will be so we have MVFR conditions
(for all terminals) on our 18 UTC TAF package. Any low clouds/fog
will improve mid to late morning.
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southerly
flow and low seas.
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion
values climb above 75 Monday afternoon, and possibly again Tuesday
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 92 72 93 72 / 10 40 20 20 10
Panama City 76 87 75 87 75 / 20 30 10 10 20
Dothan 73 92 72 91 73 / 30 60 30 40 30
Albany 73 92 73 92 72 / 10 50 40 50 30
Valdosta 71 92 71 91 72 / 20 40 30 30 20
Cross City 71 92 69 91 70 / 40 20 10 10 10
Apalachicola 75 87 75 87 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Fournier
Short Term/Long Term/Marine/Hydrology...DVD