Area Forecast Discussion
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479
FXUS62 KTAE 260816
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR with occasional IFR conditions will
impact VLD during the pre-dawn hours. There may be a brief MVFR
ceiling at TLH and ABY as well, but it is more likely the a mid
level cloud deck will maintain VFR ceilings until sunrise. Clearing
will occur from northwest to southeast from 09-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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