Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 170925
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a very warm day across the region on Tuesday where high temps
shot up into the mid to upper 70s in many locations (highs which
were 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year), a cold
front continues to push southeastward through our area tonight. A
ridge of high pressure behind this front will give us plenty of
sunshine today, but high temps will return right back to normal
levels, which are the lower to middle 60s for mid December. It will
still be a fairly pleasant day for outdoor activities, however, as
winds will be light out of the N and NW.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.
[Through 12Z Thursday] Very simplistic aviation forecast over the
next 24 hours, as a very thin patch of cirrus moves through the
terminals overnight behind the passing cold front. Unlimited VFR
conditions with light winds are expected for at least the entire
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 38 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 63 43 65 48 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dothan 62 40 63 43 63 / 0 0 0 10 30
Albany 62 37 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 10 20
Valdosta 64 37 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 67 36 68 41 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 63 42 63 47 65 / 0 0 0 10 10