Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 171914
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A few light showers are popping up across Southwest Georgia.
Dewpoints are near 70 for most of the area and will decrease to
the mid 60s tonight as dry air continues to push south. Rain
chances are low tonight with PoPs 10% or less. Lows tonight will
be cooler than the past few nights and will range from 66 at
Dothan and Albany to 72 near the coast.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This
will yield another mainly dry day across the region with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.
By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida.
As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the
gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across
the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across
the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will
increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds
of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has
responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties.
For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast
pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive
cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in
the mid 80s.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
[Through 18Z Thursday]
VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all the terminals
through the rest of the period. MVFR visibility is possible at VLD
Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before
shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast.
Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend
before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.
While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result
in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall
amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and
streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light
rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be
in recession for the next few days.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 92 68 90 68 / 10 0 10 40 20
Panama City 71 90 72 88 72 / 10 10 10 20 20
Dothan 66 89 67 89 67 / 10 0 10 20 10
Albany 66 90 68 89 67 / 10 10 10 40 20
Valdosta 67 91 68 88 67 / 10 10 10 50 30
Cross City 69 93 70 84 68 / 10 0 10 50 20
Apalachicola 73 88 73 85 72 / 10 10 10 40 20