Area Forecast Discussion
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687 FXUS62 KTAE 282001 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 301 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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High pressure over New England is bringing northeasterly flow at the sfc. Strong southerly flow at 850mb is pulling in abundant moisture over the region. Cool air at the sfc and warm, moist air at 850mb is creating an overrunning situation since a strong inversion is in place preventing mixing. Therefore, low stratus clouds will persist through tonight. Intermittent rain showers and drizzle is likely particularly over the eastern half of the CWA and the coastal waters. Thick cloud cover tonight will keep lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the Florida counties. By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures to finally break into the 70s across much of the area. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] Low stratus clouds have enveloped the area today. Ceilings will be MVFR this afternoon decreasing to IFR by midnight. LIFR conditions are likely in the early morning hours. Very low ceilings will persist until mid to late morning. Rain showers or drizzle is possible, particularly at TLH and VLD. Winds will be northeasterly around 10 knots.
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&& .Marine...
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Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing heights.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta early tomorrow. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 49 62 54 75 56 / 40 10 10 10 10 Panama City 50 65 55 68 58 / 20 10 10 10 10 Dothan 44 60 51 71 56 / 20 10 10 20 10 Albany 44 53 49 70 56 / 30 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 48 58 53 75 57 / 40 20 10 10 10 Cross City 53 71 56 76 57 / 40 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 54 65 57 68 59 / 40 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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