Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281430
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Update...

No updates to the previous forecast were necessary. See
discussions below.

&&

.Prev Discussion [427 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dry northerly flow will prevail today with mostly sunny skies. Cold
air advection will allow for slightly cooler temperatures compared
to yesterday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the area.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure across the Mid Atlantic States tonight will extend
down through the region resulting in a calm clear night with low
temperatures dropping to around freezing across the inland areas.
On Thursday, as this high pressure area moves eastward into the
Atlantic, southerly flow will commence with warmer temperatures
into the mid to upper 60s.

A dry cold front will move through the region on Thursday night
into Friday. Drier air and somewhat cooler temperatures will
return for Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Through Saturday evening, the long term period will be rather
quiet with high pressure in control. By Saturday night, this high
will shift eastward ahead of a storm system developing across the
Central Plains. The models have been more insistent that this
system will be a bit stronger than indicated a few days ago. In
fact, the models suggest that the surface low should track well to
the west of the region bringing our region into the warm sector.
At this point, instability looks limited, so only have included a
mention of isolated thunder with the system on Sunday evening when
the cold front moves through.

Thereafter, the models diverge on how the remaining frontal zone
is handled across the Gulf of Mexico. Both the Euro and GFS
develop a low along this frontal feature Tuesday evening, but the
models differ in their position. For now, a slight chance of rain
Tue-Wed seems appropriate until better model agreement emerges.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue to subside today as high pressure
moves near the marine area. Generally tranquil conditions will
prevail through Thursday afternoon. A cold front will move through
the marine area early Friday morning signaling an increase in
offshore flow that will eventually build to cautionary levels over
the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.
Dispersion values may be fairly low this afternoon as well as
Thursday afternoon.


.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and will be
cresting later today at Concord. The river may briefly go above
flood stage at Concord today and eventually exceed flood stage
further downstream at Havana on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River is cresting above Valdosta as is the
Little River at Hahira. The crest values at these sites suggest
an eventual crest in the 18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84
gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models
suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the
area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any
additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area
streamflows above normal as we move into February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  33  66  48  64 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   60  41  65  50  61 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        56  35  65  47  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        54  33  64  46  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      56  33  66  46  61 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    60  32  68  45  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  59  41  64  51  63 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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