Area Forecast Discussion
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464 FXUS62 KTAE 271526 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1026 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Dry northwest flow will remain in place across the area today as the forecast area is situated within the southwestern edge of the large circulation around the northeastern blizzard. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal normals, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s under partly cloudy skies.
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&& .Prev Discussion [330 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... A reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air will arrive late tonight with high pressure building over the Tennessee River Valley. With the core of the high pressure area remaining to our north through tonight, we won`t realize ideal radiation cooling conditions, so lows generally in the mid 30s are expected. The cool airmass will remain in place for Wednesday. Despite sunny skies, temperatures will only warm into the upper 50s to near 60. High pressure builds closer to the region on Wednesday night, but increasing high cloudiness aloft may offset the favorable calm winds and prevent a light freeze from occurring. A slight warming trend will begin on Thursday as southerly flow resumes ahead of a weak cold front. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 60s across the region with mainly increasing mid/upper level cloudiness. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The first half of the long term period is still expected to be relatively tranquil. Model guidance is in good agreement that the next frontal system will be weak - and possibly dry as it passes through Thursday night and early Friday. The bulk of the cooler air behind this system will remain to the north. There`s more uncertainty this cycle with the forecast Sunday and beyond. The next storm system will begin to organize late Saturday across West Texas and spread eastward across the Mississippi River Valley. The GFS and Euro differ with how much southern stream energy gets wrapped into this system and thus disagree on how strong the storm system will be moving through the region on Sunday afternoon. The trend looks to be toward a stronger solution, so rain chances have been increased from the previous package for Sunday. Monday and Tuesday are highly uncertain as the models differ in how they handle a potent southern stream impulse moving across Northern Mexico early next week. Where a frontal zone ultimately stalls across the Gulf on Monday will largely determine whether next week is quite wet or is just on the cool side with a few passing showers. In either solution, the long term looks to continue the trend of at or below normal temperatures to finish off January and start February. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all terminals. Northwest winds will gust to around 20 knots during the day on Tuesday. .Marine... Small Craft Advisory conditions across the offshore marine area will continue into Wednesday when high pressure will move near enough to the marine area to allow winds to subside. Generally tranquil conditions will continue thereafter until a dry cold front moves through the marine area on Friday resulting in an increase in offshore winds. .Fire Weather... A drier airmass will continue to filter into the region over the next few days. However, Red Flag conditions are not expected. With strong transport winds, dispersion values will be very high across the area today. .Hydrology... Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has crested at Thomasville just below flood stage. This suggests that downstream conditions at Concord and Havana will be very near or just above flood stage later this week. The Withlacoochee River is cresting above Valdosta this morning and the additional water from the Little River (cresting at Hahira this evening) will likely result in minor flood levels later this week below Valdosta at US-84. The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area streamflows above normal as we move into February.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 64 35 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 40 58 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 36 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 59 33 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 35 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 36 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 64 41 59 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON/CAMP SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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