Area Forecast Discussion
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166 FXUS62 KTAE 270732 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 332 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Morning fog will dissipate by 9am, with only a scattered CU field expected this afternoon. Deep layer ridging will continue the dry-spell today, with high temperatures climbing into the middle 80s away from the coast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The mid level ridge axis will shift east of the region on Tuesday as the next storm system moves into the Mississippi River Valley. With more moisture returning in the southerly flow on Tuesday, it will feel a little less like late October with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints back into the low to mid 60s. By Wednesday, a frontal boundary will move into the Southern States. With the primary energy aloft remaining well to the north, little in the way of deep layer forcing will be present to generate widespread showers and storms. However, with continued warm and modestly humid conditions, scattered showers and storms will finally return to the forecast by Wednesday afternoon. Given that model forecasts have continued to trend weaker with this frontal system will keep rain chances low for now. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... An upper level trough crossing over the eastern CONUS will help push through our next cold front by Thursday. Cooler weather will be on the way by the weekend with highs dropping into the 70s Thursday and Friday and cooling further into the upper 60s over the weekend as another dry cold front pushes into the southeast. Lows will be in the mid 50s Wednesday night, upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night, and dipping further into the lower 40s over the weekend.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR conditions are expected in fog this morning at all terminals except ABY which is forecast to fall to MVFR levels. Skies will clear between 13-14z to VFR levels and remain that way through the rest of the afternoon and early evening.
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&& .Marine...
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Light onshore flow will prevail through the middle of this week ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move through the marine area on Thursday, shifting winds to offshore. A modest increase in offshore flow is expected by Friday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for the foreseeable future.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Our next chance for rain is Wednesday, but rainfall totals are expected to be below 0.5". With area rivers currently well below flood stage and low QPF in the forecast, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 85 55 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 80 62 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 86 56 85 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 20 Albany 86 55 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 85 55 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 85 52 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 80 59 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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