Area Forecast Discussion
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020 FXUS62 KTAE 292351 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 751 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A tropical wave coming ashore to our west will mean slight chances for rain tonight in our westernmost zones. Convection to our east that formed off of a boundary from storms earlier today may also affect the easternmost parts of our forecast area tonight. Otherwise, tonight will be cloudy with lows in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate coast. Patchy light fog will be possible in the early morning hours, primarily in southwest Georgia.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Saturday] Shower activity appears to be over for most area terminals this evening. However, one or two could stray close to VLD. Overnight, we expect most areas to see a period of MVFR visibility. Some guidance suggests low clouds developing at ABY and VLD, but we have kept them scattered for now due to lower confidence. Convection will fire once again on Saturday. Greatest coverage is expected across northern areas including DHN and ABY will somewhat less activity to the south.
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&& .Prev Discussion [227 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Deepest moisture associated with northward moving tropical wave will be west and north of the area on Saturday. However, still expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Best chances expected across Georgia, southeast Alabama, and down the I-75 corridor. With ridge building aloft and scattered nature of convection, temperatures should be able to warm into the mid 90s for most locations on Saturday. Large-scale forcing will be even lower by Sunday, with the upper ridge still firmly in place. This should yield even lower PoPs than Saturday, with the seabreeze driving the convection. Another warm day is likely with mid 90s for highs once again. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances. .Marine... The subtropical ridge will be positioned north of the coastal waters through early next week. As a result, expect to see light southerly to southeasterly flow continue through at least Tuesday. .Fire Weather... No fire weather concerns for at least the next several days. .Hydrology... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 94 74 93 73 / 20 40 20 40 20 Panama City 78 90 77 91 77 / 20 30 20 30 20 Dothan 73 93 74 94 74 / 20 50 20 30 20 Albany 73 94 73 95 73 / 10 50 30 30 20 Valdosta 73 94 72 93 72 / 30 50 30 50 20 Cross City 74 93 73 92 72 / 30 40 30 40 20 Apalachicola 78 90 76 90 76 / 20 30 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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