Area Forecast Discussion
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548
FXUS62 KTAE 291411
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [341 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.


.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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