Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
511 FXUS62 KTAE 020846 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 346 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast challenge continues to be temperatures. The wedge has finally weakened and low level winds will veer to become onshore by this afternoon. However, low level clouds may linger most of the day along with patchy light rain or drizzle across northwest portions of our CWA. This time of year it would not take many breaks in the cloud cover to see a dramatic warm-up over what we saw on Sunday where there was almost a 30 degree temperature differential from northeast to southeast. I did trend a few degrees below most MOS guidance and show temps ranging from upper 60s northern GA zones to upper 70 eastern Big Bend. Most inland areas should at least reach the lower 70s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The Tuesday to Wednesday period will feature our area being situated under the northern periphery of a mid-upper level ridge, while a surface ridge along the east coast quickly erodes. The end result will be most of the rain chances staying north and west of our area, and increasing southerly flow. Temperatures will be trending warmer, with mid-upper 70s expected. A few sites could hit the 80 degree mark, although there still are some questions related to cloud cover. We currently expect any morning fog and stratus to largely dissipate by the afternoon hours each day, but if that doesn`t occur, temperatures could be a bit cooler than what we are forecasting. Over the cooler Gulf waters, though, the fog and stratus could become gradually entrenched during this timeframe, particularly later on Tuesday and into Wednesday as winds become more southerly vs. southeasterly, and boundary layer mixing ratios continue to climb. We included some fog wording in areas with cooler sea-surface temperatures through much of the period. Over land areas, fog tonight should be related more to radiational cooling with light east flow still expected over the northern Gulf. However, sea fog is a realistic possibility on Tuesday Night. We have included fog in the forecast both nights. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... A cold front should arrive on Thursday, with rain chances highest on Wednesday Night and Thursday ahead of the front. However, models show weak QG forcing over our area, with stronger QG forcing remaining further north. Therefore, PoPs are only in the chance range at the moment, and QPF is rather light. Although it will be cooler behind the front, a relatively stable configuration of mid-upper level ridge over south Florida and upper level jet axis over the Mid South and Mid Atlantic should prevent the core of the cold air mass from making it this far south. The stalling surface front just to our south, while we remain in the right entrance region of an upper level jet, should maintain rain chances through the remainder of the extended forecast. In other words, after the front arrives, the trend will be cloudy and cool with a chance of rain into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 12Z Tuesday]...IFR ceilings will fall into the LIFR category at all terminals by daybreak. There is much lower confidence as to just how dense fog will get, however expect at least MVFR visibilities at all terminals with the potential to fall to LIFR. Ceilings will likely not scatter out today, and only lift into the MVFR window once again.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Relatively light winds and calm seas are expected for the next day or so, before winds and seas gradually ramp up in advance of the next cold front. However, SCEC or advisory conditions are not expected until after the front on Thursday. Humid air returning north over the cooler waters of the far northeast Gulf could lead to some sea fog, particularly later on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Mariners should be alert for that possibility.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low today.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta late this evening. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 74 59 79 57 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 Panama City 70 59 71 61 74 / 10 10 10 10 20 Dothan 71 59 77 61 76 / 20 20 20 20 30 Albany 67 58 77 59 79 / 20 20 20 10 20 Valdosta 75 60 80 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 Cross City 78 60 78 59 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 69 59 71 59 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.