Area Forecast Discussion
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606 FXUS62 KTAE 300751 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 351 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Dry air behind a rare July front will preclude any shower or thunderstorm development today. Expect afternoon highs near normal today, around 90 degrees away from the coast. A flat but scattered CU field will be possible along an east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee.
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&& .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
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Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel temperatures similar to Thursday.
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&& .Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
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The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70. Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Thursday]... VFR conditions under light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF.
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&& .Marine...
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Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these will still be well away from any headline conditions.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days. Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of the week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All area rivers area currently below action stage, and over the next few days, any additional rainfall will not cause any concern at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 93 66 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 30 Panama City 90 71 90 75 88 / 0 10 0 10 30 Dothan 89 64 93 70 89 / 0 10 0 10 40 Albany 91 66 93 71 90 / 0 10 0 20 40 Valdosta 96 67 96 70 93 / 0 0 10 10 30 Cross City 94 67 93 69 92 / 0 0 10 10 20 Apalachicola 89 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 0 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GOULD/DOBBS

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