Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 012014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along
the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the
SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across
MS. Local radars showed a few, sporadic light showers across the
region, and this may continue into tonight (20% PoP) as weak
isentropic ascent lingers. We expect the low clouds to continue
overnight, with areas of fog developing after midnight. Lows will be
above average- in the 50s.
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast
with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through
at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with
Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence
approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon
when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take
place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly
component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be
the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from
guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday.
Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern
zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out
quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur.
By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting
north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is
left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are
expected across the northern portion of the area near to the
surface warm front.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Continued warm weather will start the extended period with
southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end
up approaching 80 degrees in some spots.
By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a
chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts
will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone
stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend,
yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement
on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will
interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the
area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far
out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures
from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for
afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for
[Through 18Z Monday] Low cigs are likely to persist through Monday
morning. We expect predominantly IFR cigs for the remainder of
today, except for occasional MVFR cigs at KTLH and KVLD. Vis will
be MVFR to VFR. Conditions will worsen overnight, with cigs and
Vis falling to LIFR levels at most sites by 06z. Vis will improve
to MVFR by late Monday morning, but cigs will likely remain at IFR
levels through early Monday afternoon. &&
Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this
evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly
flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to
offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds
and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on
Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta late this evening.
No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 55 70 59 75 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 56 68 59 69 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 52 67 58 76 61 / 20 10 20 10 10
Albany 50 61 57 76 59 / 20 10 30 10 10
Valdosta 54 69 59 78 60 / 10 10 20 10 10
Cross City 58 77 58 77 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 58 67 60 68 62 / 10 10 10 10 10