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781
FXUS62 KTAE 231940
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT Thu May 23 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through tonight]...
A few showers are already forming early this afternoon ahead of a
surface thetae gradient over parts of southeast Georgia, and these
may develop southwestward into the eastern Florida Big Bend. Thus,
the 20% PoP through 00 UTC was maintained, with a dry forecast
thereafter as drier air finally advects into the majority of our
forecast area. With the arrival of drier air, it should be a
mostly clear night with minimal fog concerns. Lows will remain
close to seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Upper pattern across the CONUS is forecast to remain amplified
through the weekend, with troughs along the east and west coasts,
and a ridge in place over the central states. The northwest flow
across the deep south tonight and Friday will push a cold front
through the area. The main impact of the cold front will be to
usher in a much drier airmass, which will result in cooler
overnight lows through the weekend. Expect to see low temperatures
in the lower to mid 50s Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...
Outlook is VFR for the entire duration of the forecast. Any -SHRA
this afternoon should be southeast of VLD and TLH. Some VFR CIGS
are possible this afternoon at TLH and VLD, but skies should clear
overnight. Winds will continue to be out of the northwest, but
gusts should diminish around 22-23 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels Friday
night, in the wake of a cold front. Winds and seas will diminish
by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the waters, and
remain minimal through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow has been maintained as is,
due to some continued uncertainty as to precise values of minimum
RH and wind speed. Either way, it is likely that conditions in SE
Alabama and the interior Florida Panhandle will be marginal for
red flag conditions. A decision on upgrading to a RFW will be made
later tonight. Otherwise, a drier air mass will be in place over
the region from Friday into the weekend. High dispersions are
likely on Friday over all of north Florida.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  90  54  86  53 / 10  10   0   0   0
Panama City   72  89  63  83  64 / 10  10   0   0   0
Dothan        66  88  54  86  57 / 10  10   0   0   0
Albany        64  86  52  84  55 / 10  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  87  54  84  52 / 10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    65  91  56  87  54 / 10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  88  64  82  64 / 10  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers/Walsh
HYDROLOGY...Camp