Area Forecast Discussion
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166
FXUS62 KTAE 270732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Morning fog will dissipate by 9am, with only a scattered CU field
expected this afternoon. Deep layer ridging will continue the
dry-spell today, with high temperatures climbing into the middle 80s
away from the coast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The mid level ridge axis will shift east of the region on Tuesday
as the next storm system moves into the Mississippi River Valley.
With more moisture returning in the southerly flow on Tuesday, it
will feel a little less like late October with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and dewpoints back into the low to mid 60s.

By Wednesday, a frontal boundary will move into the Southern
States. With the primary energy aloft remaining well to the
north, little in the way of deep layer forcing will be present to
generate widespread showers and storms. However, with continued
warm and modestly humid conditions, scattered showers and storms
will finally return to the forecast by Wednesday afternoon. Given
that model forecasts have continued to trend weaker with this
frontal system will keep rain chances low for now.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
An upper level trough crossing over the eastern CONUS will
help push through our next cold front by Thursday. Cooler weather
will be on the way by the weekend with highs dropping into the 70s
Thursday and Friday and cooling further into the upper 60s over
the weekend as another dry cold front pushes into the southeast.
Lows will be in the mid 50s Wednesday night, upper 40s to low 50s
Thursday night, and dipping further into the lower 40s over the
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR conditions are expected in fog this
morning at all terminals except ABY which is forecast to fall to
MVFR levels. Skies will clear between 13-14z to VFR levels and
remain that way through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.Marine...
Light onshore flow will prevail through the middle of this week
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move through
the marine area on Thursday, shifting winds to offshore. A modest
increase in offshore flow is expected by Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.Hydrology...
Our next chance for rain is Wednesday, but rainfall totals are
expected to be below 0.5". With area rivers currently well below
flood stage and low QPF in the forecast, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  55  86  57  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   80  62  81  65  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        86  56  85  60  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        86  55  85  57  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      85  55  86  55  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    85  52  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  80  59  81  62  80 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




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