Area Forecast Discussion
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639 FXUS62 KTAE 191406 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1006 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014 ...Isolated Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening... .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The morning analysis depicts an upper level shortwave moving east-southeast through northern Alabama currently with the axis stretching southwestward back to east-central Mississippi. The low level airmass across the area is very soupy this morning with dewpoints hitting the 80 degree mark around Marianna and far southern Georgia. Modifying the 12z KTAE sounding for an afternoon T/Td of 95/70 yields SBCAPE values around 2800 j/kg. There is some mid-level dry air present in the sounding so expect dewpoints to mix out some this afternoon and drop from the very high values this morning. Taking a peek farther to the west where the air will be advecting from this afternoon, the 12z New Orleans sounding is pretty impressive with steeper mid-level lapse rates and strong instability. Given the presence of the upper level shortwave passing near the area this afternoon, expect storms to ignite this afternoon and the potential is there for some of them to become severe with damaging wind being the main threat. In fact, the 06z NAM depicts 850 mb winds of 30-35 knots across our northern counties this afternoon which is unusually high for August. Our locally run CAM ensemble utilizing 8 members is also on the bullish side with the severe weather threat this afternoon. Given all of this information along with the SPC outlook showing some severe probabilities across the area, went ahead and added an explicit mention of severe storms to the point and click forecast across most areas except for the southeast big bend for this afternoon. The previous forecast already went with the higher guidance in terms of PoPs for this afternoon, so no significant changes were made there.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Wednesday] Look for another active day with numerous showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. A few of the storms could be strong to severe with most of the impacts occurring sometime between 18z-00z.
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&& .Prev Discussion [321 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Mid-level heights will be on the rise for Wednesday and Thursday as the eastern U.S. trough slides offshore and a ridge builds over the Central Gulf Coast. As the low/mid-level ridge builds west of the forecast area, the low-level flow will become west- northwesterly for Wednesday and northerly for Thursday. With weakening upper support and less favorable flow for seabreeze convection, expect decreasing PoPs through Thursday, especially for inland areas. The building ridge will also lead to some hot temperatures. Expect highs to reach the mid 90s on Wednesday, with upper 90s to near 100 degrees possible on Thursday. Heat indices may rise above 105 in a few areas by Thursday. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... An upper level ridge is expected to build northward from the Gulf across the southeast states through the period. With deep layer ridging acting to suppress afternoon convection, PoPs are forecast to be slightly below average through the period with temperatures above average. The main driver for convection will be the sea breeze with isolated to scattered coverage expected. .Marine... Light to moderate west-southwest flow will continue through Wednesday before high pressure builds over the waters and winds and seas diminish through the end of the week. Conditions are forecast to remain below headline criteria through the period. .Fire Weather... Normal summer conditions through the week will mean plentiful moisture, preventing red flag criteria from being met. .Hydrology... Significant flooding is not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 75 96 75 99 / 60 30 40 20 30 Panama City 94 78 93 78 93 / 50 20 30 20 30 Dothan 94 74 95 74 98 / 70 30 30 30 10 Albany 95 73 97 75 99 / 70 30 30 20 10 Valdosta 96 73 96 74 98 / 70 30 30 20 20 Cross City 94 75 94 74 96 / 20 10 40 20 20 Apalachicola 92 77 93 76 93 / 50 10 30 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...DVD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...DVD

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