Area Forecast Discussion
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402 FXUS62 KTAE 272357 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 757 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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With a deep layer ridge in place across much of the Southeast, we expect fair weather and mild temperatures overnight. Lows will be in the mid 50s, but a bit warmer at the beaches and in the cities. Virtually all of the latest NWP guidance forecast areas of dense fog late tonight through mid morning Tuesday, and this seems like a good bet given what happened this morning, as well as the climatology associated with abnormally warm conditions this time of year.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] We expect dense fog to develop at all sites between 06z and 10z. Because this fog should be shallow, VFR Vis will return between 13z and 14z, with unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis for the remainder of Tues. Winds will be light S-SE, becoming S around 10 KT at KECP by early afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [308 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... An upper level trough will approach and continue to deepen over the eastern CONUS with the axis remaining west of our CWA. At the surface, a cold front will push into the SE U.S. Tuesday and gradually weaken as it moves across the Tri-state region Wednesday and Wednesday night. PoPs will be highest Wednesday afternoon tapered from lower chance (30%) west of Albany to Panama City and slight to silent (20-10%) east of there. PoPs will be in the slight range all zones for Wednesday night. Temps will be above seasonal levels with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... The upper level trough will deepen further while moving to our east by the weekend. There will be a slight chance for showers over our southern zones Thursday/Thursday night until the front pushes to our south. A cooler and much drier airmass will filter in over the weekend with a return to near normal temps on Monday as winds swing around to the east ahead of the next developing low pressure system. .Marine... Light onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move through the marine area Wednesday night, shifting winds to offshore. An gradual increase in offshore flow is expected with at least advisory conditions by late Friday or Saturday. .Fire Weather... Fair & warm weather will persist through Tuesday. A weak cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, bringing a modest chance of showers to the region. A return to lower dewpoints and more seasonal temperatures is expected for Thursday & Friday. Areas of dense fog are expected Tuesday morning. .Hydrology... Our next chance for rain is Wednesday, but rainfall totals are expected to be below 0.5". With area rivers currently well below flood stage and low QPF in the forecast, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 54 86 56 85 59 / 0 0 10 20 20 Panama City 62 84 65 81 63 / 0 0 10 20 20 Dothan 56 84 61 84 56 / 0 0 10 30 20 Albany 55 86 58 86 55 / 0 0 10 30 20 Valdosta 54 86 56 84 57 / 0 0 10 10 20 Cross City 53 85 56 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 20 Apalachicola 59 81 62 80 63 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER/BARRY MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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