Area Forecast Discussion
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767 FXUS62 KTAE 300103 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front. The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid 40s (as opposed to near freezing).
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs, though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the 00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool, dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower 40s. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler, drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s to the mid 50s. .Marine... Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning. .Fire Weather... A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration, etc.) will not be favorable. .Hydrology... The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage, just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last week`s rainfall is expected. Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 47 63 34 64 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 Panama City 50 61 38 60 48 / 30 0 0 0 10 Dothan 43 58 32 59 43 / 20 0 0 0 10 Albany 43 60 30 59 41 / 20 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 45 62 33 64 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 Cross City 46 68 34 67 44 / 10 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 53 64 39 61 49 / 20 10 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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