Area Forecast Discussion
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774 FXUS62 KTAE 240142 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 842 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Potent shortwave, which kicked off the isolated severe weather this afternoon/evening, has moved rapidly to the northeast and out of the forecast area. However, the main front remains well to the west along the central Gulf Coast, with the primary trough axis even further west. With deep-layer onshore flow still in place, and some minimal elevated instability as noted in the KTAE 00z sounding, most of the guidance continues to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the night from the Florida Panhandle into south central Georgia. The lowest levels have stabilized with temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, so severe wx should not be an issue. However, will keep PoPs elevated through the night.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] With the primary squall line east of all terminals at this time, the threat for strong thunderstorms is over. Strong low-level winds will still force a narrow band of showers with possibly an isolated storm for the next couple of hours, though this should only impact KABY and KECP with some IFR visibilities. Expect IFR ceilings to overspread all terminals shortly after midnight, expected to last through at least mid- morning tomorrow. Restrictions will only gradually improve from KABY to KTLH eastward, with VFR expected to return to the west by midday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [416 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The northern stream longwave trough will deepen through the period as a couple more +PV anomalies dive through the Middle Mississippi Valley and another through the Southern Plains. It won`t be until the southernmost anomaly sweeps through the Southeast that rain will come to an end across the Tri-State region. In the meantime, a weak surface boundary and some southern stream forcing will keep a chance for showers in the forecast on Monday although the synoptic front will be west of the region. Ahead of the front we`ll likely be able to squeeze out one more day of middle 70s across the region. The front will pass to the east of us overnight with temperatures cooling into the low 50s and upper 40s. On Tuesday, we`ll likely be able to generate a little more coverage across the region under some diffluence aloft between the approaching northern stream shortwave and the departing southern stream anomaly. This will all be post frontal, cool rain with afternoon highs in the upper 50s area-wide. Rain will continue through the night Tuesday with lows dipping to around 40 degrees. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast on Wednesday as the northern stream shortwave finally clears out the moisture and ushers in dry air. Wednesday night through Thursday night expect lows in the mid to upper 30s. We`ll finish the week with afternoon highs and overnight lows gradually climbing back up to seasonal averages. .Marine... A prolonged period of at least cautionary winds, and sometimes advisory level will continue through mid-week when high pressure will build into the Southeast. Showers will be possible through Wednesday, and then dry to finish the week. .Fire Weather... A drier airmass will move into the region for Monday. However, humidity values are still forecast to remain well above critical values, so there are no fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches have occurred over most of the area overnight and through the morning hours. Heavy rain with a squall line this afternoon and evening will exit the area by midnight, with additional amounts of
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 77 52 59 41 / 60 40 20 50 60 Panama City 66 72 53 59 44 / 60 30 10 50 60 Dothan 64 76 47 57 40 / 30 20 10 40 50 Albany 66 76 48 58 40 / 60 30 10 40 60 Valdosta 68 75 53 58 42 / 60 50 30 50 70 Cross City 71 74 58 64 45 / 50 50 40 60 70 Apalachicola 67 73 55 60 45 / 60 40 20 50 60
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay- South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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