Area Forecast Discussion
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989 FXUS62 KTAE 220019 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 819 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Quasi-zonal, fairly weak upper level flow is currently occurring over most of the CONUS this evening. However, an upper trough will begin to develop and amplify overnight, with its axis stretching from the Upper Midwest through the Southern Plains. Just downstream of this feature, a surface low will begin to deepen over the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front moving southeastward through the Ohio Valley and southern Mississippi Valley regions. This front will not be close enough to our region through the rest of this period to have any significant impacts, though, as high pressure remains entrenched over the Southeast. As a result, dry conditions with light to calm winds and fair skies with patchy cirrus will prevail through the end of the period. Radiational cooling will be efficient overnight, and enough low level moisture will remain over southern and western counties for the potential of some patchy fog development early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will likely range from lower-mid 50s in inland areas to near 60 in coastal regions.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions should prevail throughout the period, although VLD may drop to MVFR briefly overnight. A front approaching from the west will cause ceilings to lower after 18Z. Afternoon thunderstorms around DHN and ABY may act to briefly lower visibilities.
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&& .Prev Discussion [256 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... Tuesday...The fairly progressive large scale mid/upper level pattern starts the day marked by trough over Wrn most states... ridge Ewd to Wrn Gulf states...and a weak positively tilted H5 shortwave trough over Ern states bringing increasing mid moisture. At surface...low over PENN/Ontario border with weak back door cold front Swwd thru MS/AL/LA to begin the day. By sundown...trough axis has pivoted to Ern seaboard while cold front...absent upper support...begins to weaken...slow down and then become quasi-stnry lying more WSW to ENE along S/Cntrl AL/GA. The latest guidance shows only marginal instability with weak lapse rates...meager shear and forcing. However PWATS increase to around 1.4 inches NW to 1.1. inches SE CWFA and there should be enough cape to support at least isold Tstms south of front and over our CWFA in the aftn. 50-10% NW-SE POP gradient with highest POPs and QPF (AOB 0.16 inches) SE AL and adjacent SW GA. Highs in the low 80s. Tuesday Night...The trough moves into the Atlc with upstream ridging overspreading the Gulf region. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the front stalling near the FL-GA border Tuesday night into Wednesday. With loss of heating and exiting trough...POPs decrease to slight chance possibility of Shwrs/isold Tstms. With winds remaining above calm... this scenario will favor low clouds but some fog is likely and fog and CAM/SREF guidance implies both ample low stratus and at least patchy fog but will hold off on inserting into GRIDS that far out. Expect mild temperatures...lows around 60. Wednesday...Ridging with rising heights and subsidence builds in to dominate local region. Front begins to wash out across or just south of our Srn CWFA with decreasing cloud cover. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The large scale Srn stream pattern commences fairly progressive with near zonal flow over Wrn states...weak trough over Cntrl states and weak ridging over Ern states. On Friday...ridging moves offshore leaving near zonal flow over SE region reflected in uni-directional flow on model soundings. Flow shifts to weak WNW flow into Sat. On Sun into Mon...upstream amplified ridging builds Ewd into Gulf region. At surface...ridge becomes established over Nrn Gulf on Thurs thru Fri night. Then...a low well to the north of CWFA brings a trailing weak front to our area on Sat where it likely stalls by Sat eve providing a small chance of convection. Sheared out front then lifts back Nwd on Sun. This will place local area in warm sector allowing for a weak seabreeze to develop Sat-Mon. Next cold front moves into SE on Mon yielding a modest increase on precipitation across mainly NW half of CWA on Mon. With local area in warm sector...temperatures are expected to be slightly above climo with inland highs in the low to mid 80s and under the sea breeze influence...somewhat cooler at the coast. .Marine... The pressure gradient will be relatively weak through Wednesday, so winds and seas are expected to remain below 15 KT. There will be a slight increase in winds and choppiness near the coast each afternoon due to the daily sea breeze development. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the week. .Hydrology... Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage Tuesday morning with several others in moderate flood stage. Most area rivers will crest soon or have already crested. The exception is the Suwannee River which will rise slowly for the remainder of the week. QPF amounts for tomorrow are expected to be less than 0.25 inch and will not have major impacts on river levels. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 54 82 59 83 58 / 0 20 10 10 0 Panama City 59 76 62 79 62 / 0 20 10 10 0 Dothan 57 81 59 82 57 / 0 40 20 10 0 Albany 56 82 58 82 56 / 0 40 30 0 0 Valdosta 55 82 59 84 57 / 0 20 20 10 0 Cross City 54 81 57 83 58 / 0 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 58 75 62 77 62 / 0 10 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD/LAHR SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...BLOCK AVIATION...LAMERS/HELLER MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...HOLLINGSWORTH HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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