Area Forecast Discussion
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689 FXUS62 KTAE 300023 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area, however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance. (Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However, given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z. Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high for this time of year, especially further to the south and east across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30% over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle to upper 60s. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. .Marine... Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few days. .Hydrology... With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 85 69 89 71 / 40 20 20 30 20 Panama City 71 84 72 87 74 / 40 20 10 20 10 Dothan 66 85 66 89 68 / 30 10 10 10 10 Albany 67 85 66 89 69 / 30 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 67 85 67 89 68 / 50 20 10 20 20 Cross City 71 85 69 88 68 / 80 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 71 83 73 85 74 / 70 30 20 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION... MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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