Area Forecast Discussion
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590 FXUS62 KTAE 030944 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 444 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The day will start off with widespread fog across the region. Once the fog lifts, skies will be mostly cloudy. However, with the building mid/upper ridge, southerly low level flow, and breaks in the cloud cover, we will see temps well above seasonal levels this afternoon. Max temps should top the 80 degree mark for most inland areas and the lower to mid 70s for the coastal zones. The immediate coastal areas may experience sea fog the entire day. Also, a few light showers or sprinkles will be possible generally north of the Florida border as a weak impulse passes to our north. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... For tonight, we should see additional widespread fog, as has been the case the past couple nights. However, the fog near the coast and in the western part of our area may be forced more by advection processes than radiational cooling - as has been the case previously. This will be due to increasing southerly flow over the cooler shelf waters near the coast and in Apalachee Bay. The end result will be roughly the same, and we will likely have to contend with some dense fog again. The primary forecast concern on Wednesday will be related to high temperatures, as QC forcing associated with an approaching cold front will still largely be situated to our northwest. The greatest uncertainty exists within 20 miles of the coast and in the western third of the area, where SREF probabilistic guidance and several deterministic models maintain BKN-OVC skies for much of the day. With persistent southerly winds all day, it would not be too surprising to see stratus and/or fog lingering most of the day near the coast. Meanwhile, inland in the Big Bend and SW Georgia, clouds and fog seem more likely to scatter out. In these areas, guidance puts highs near 80 degrees, and this seems reasonable given similar boundary layer temperature profiles to yesterday when highs were near 80 in sunnier locations. Closer to the coast and in SE Alabama and the western FL Panhandle, we kept highs in the low-mid 70s, although if OVC skies or fog linger all day, that could still be a bit too high. A relatively shallow cold front will approach on Wednesday Night and push through the area on Thursday. This will bring rain chances north and west by Wednesday Night and into the rest of the area on Thursday. The strongest QG forcing will be well to our north closer to stronger mid-level PVA, which should lead to scattered, light showers in our area. Some models show enough marginal instability for a few storms, so that was also included. High temperatures in the western half of our area will likely be achieved early in the day, with falling temperatures thereafter. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... As the surface front passes south of our area, it will begin to stall given a stagnant upper level pattern. The cold front will be sloped back to the northwest in the vertical, intersecting the 850mb surface roughly near our area. As a few weak waves aloft eject along the Gulf coast, and the region remains in the right entrance region of an upper level jet, some rain showers will be possible into the weekend to the north of the stalling surface front. Rain chances are low (20-30%) but cloud cover should keep high temperatures below normal.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Wednesday] Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities due to fog at least through daybreak. All terminals should become VFR by this afternoon only to experience similar conditions overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be light from the southeast to south.
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&& .Marine...
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The main weather story for our marine zones over the next 48 hours will be fog, and it is very likely to be dense in spots through much of the period - particularly over Apalachee Bay. The latest tower and buoy observations confirm 0-1F dewpoint depressions, with coastal observations reporting visibility under 1 mile (to around 1/4 mile at times). Combined with satellite information, this suggests that fog and stratus are lingering over much of the marine forecast area, and models show that continuing through the day. Therefore, the Marine Dense Fog Advisory is continued through 7 PM EST, and it may need to be further extended. A cold front will arrive on Thursday, bringing advisory level winds in its wake.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Ochlockonee River at Havana is forecast to reach minor flood stage overnight and will crest on Wednesday. The Apalachicola at Blountstown, Withlacoochee at Valdosta and Ochlockonee at Concord have all crested and will fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 81 59 81 64 69 / 10 10 10 30 50 Panama City 74 60 71 63 66 / 10 10 20 40 50 Dothan 81 60 77 60 61 / 20 10 30 50 60 Albany 80 59 80 62 65 / 30 10 20 40 60 Valdosta 83 61 83 63 73 / 20 10 10 20 50 Cross City 82 60 83 61 75 / 10 10 10 10 40 Apalachicola 73 60 68 63 68 / 10 10 10 30 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for all zones. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for all zones. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for all zones. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for all zones.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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