Area Forecast Discussion
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340 FXUS62 KTAE 160301 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1001 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As return flow increases on the western periphery of surface high pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front, very shallow isentropic ascent may result in a few light showers across the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama. The coverage of rain should remain isolated-to-scattered in nature due to the weakly forced, extremely shallow surface based (~290K) layer over which ascent is occurring. By sunrise the surface front will be approaching our western Alabama and Florida counties yielding a better chance for showers. Separate from the approaching frontal system, dense fog is developing over the southeast Big Bend of Florida tonight. A dense fog advisory is currently in effect for the region and may have to be extended northward as the evolution of the fog becomes more clear. The main point of concern will be in Dixie county where a prescribed burn has left some lingering smoke just west of highway 19 near county road 361. Typically a fog/smoke mix will yield near zero visibilities. Depending upon how this plays out a dense smoke advisory may be possible later tonight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday]... Low ceilings, likely in the MVFR range will spread west to east late tonight through tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Behind the front restrictions should clear somewhat quickly. In general, expect a 3 to 6 hour window of restrictions at each terminal through the TAF. A narrow band of light showers should be expected immediately along the front. West winds may gust to around 20 knots at times.
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&& .Prev Discussion [348 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A mid-upper level low, currently evident on water vapor satellite loops centered over northern Missouri, should slowly lift into Lower Michigan by tomorrow morning. With most of the mid-upper level height falls focused well north of our area, the cold front approaching from the west should be weakening with time. In fact, the 500mb heights are forecast to rise over the next 24 hours over our forecast area. Therefore, we expect fairly weak forcing along the cold front, with a broken line of showers. Hi-res guidance suggests that most locales could see rain, but the rain totals will be rather light and the duration very short (1-hr or less). Temperatures ahead of the cold front should be above normal. Dry weather with clearing skies is expected for the remainder of the short term period as the shallow front passes by and a ridge of surface high pressure builds in underneath zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will cool closer to seasonal normals. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Although zonal flow over the southern US will be the predominant pattern through much of the extended forecast period, global models do consistently show a deamplifying wave ejecting from Texas to the Southeast on Friday to Saturday. In general, they are depicting a surface low to develop somewhere in the vicinity of the Gulf coast, although the details have been quite variable among different model runs. For now we are forecasting the best rain chances on Friday Night and Saturday, and some thunderstorms will be possible too. Temperatures will be steady near seasonal normals for much of the period. .Marine... Southwesterly winds will increase tonight as the cold front approaches. 15-20 knot winds appear likely enough west of Apalachicola to warrant a SCEC headline for those legs, mainly for the 06-18Z period. The next significant increase in winds should be later Friday or Saturday as the next low pressure system approaches the area. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, with rain possible tomorrow and early this weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. .Hydrology... No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 48 76 42 65 39 / 10 30 0 0 0 Panama City 58 71 46 61 47 / 20 40 0 0 0 Dothan 55 69 40 62 39 / 20 40 0 0 0 Albany 46 71 38 63 36 / 10 40 0 0 0 Valdosta 43 73 41 64 38 / 0 30 0 0 0 Cross City 42 74 43 68 38 / 0 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 56 72 46 62 45 / 10 30 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Dixie- Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS

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