Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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