Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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145
FXUS62 KTAE 281820
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH THE
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN PREVIOUS LOW POPS FOR
THAT AREA. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO FADE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG BY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN KEEPING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE WEAK WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEE LITTLE REASON WITH THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE TO
DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME
COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MID 80S, WITH A NOTABLE CHANGE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THERE
ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS WITH THE
EVENTUAL INCOMING AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME KEY POINTS ARE
STARTING TO EMERGE. ESSENTIALLY, THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF THIS AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL PATH OF A
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL LARGELY DICTATE HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES
IT TO THE GULF COAST. OF THE TWO MODELS, THE EURO IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BY
SATURDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE FIRST REAL COLD
AIR INTRUSION TO THE GULF. AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN THE
MODEL ALIGNED OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE EURO HINTS AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROSTY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE GFS FAVORS LESS AMPLIFICATION AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO THIS SOLUTION FAVORS
MILDER TEMPERATURES AS MUCH OF THE COLD AIR IS VECTORED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO THE
NORTH.

THE GFS HAS OFFERED STABILITY IN ITS SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WHILE THE EURO HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY.
MOREOVER, THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EURO SEEMS TO BE QUITE REMOVED
FROM THE MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLES, SO FOR NOW, HAVE WEIGHTED OUR LONG
TERM FORECAST MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH INDICATES A
COOL SNAP, BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS COLD AS SUGGESTED IN THE EURO.

BY MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS, SIGNALING A GRADUAL WARM
UP AND A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.


.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED.


.HYDROLOGY...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RIVERS WILL
REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION [BEGINNING 18Z TUESDAY]...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR AT TAE AND VLD
BY 07Z-08Z AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE
LOWER CIGS/VSBY INTO THE VLIFR RANGE ESPECIALLY AT TLH AND VLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   58  85  62  79  50 / 10  10  20  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  81  62  76  54 / 10  10  20  10   0
DOTHAN        62  82  55  75  45 / 10  30  20  10   0
ALBANY        60  83  55  77  46 /  0  20  20  10   0
VALDOSTA      56  83  58  79  51 /  0  10  20  10   0
CROSS CITY    57  83  60  82  53 / 10  10  20  10   0
APALACHICOLA  66  79  64  77  53 / 10  10  20  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








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