Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 232116

416 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A fairly vigorous squall line continues to march eastward across
central portions of the CWA early this afternoon with brief heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, and wind gusts generally in the 35 to
50 mph range. As the vertical wind shear continues to become more
linear in nature, the tornadic threat should continue to decrease
throughout the remainder of the day, although severe wind gusts will
remain a distinct possibility until the squall line moves through.
Thereafter, areas of light to moderate rain, wind gusts of 30 to 45
mph and a few storms will fill in behind the line and may linger for
quite some time into tonight, further adding to the rainfall totals.
Temps will be very mild for a change with overnight lows ranging
from the lower 60s over SE AL to the upper 60s over the SE Big Bend.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The northern stream longwave trough will deepen through the period
as a couple more +PV anomalies dive through the Middle Mississippi
Valley and another through the Southern Plains. It won`t be until
the southernmost anomaly sweeps through the Southeast that rain
will come to an end across the Tri-State region.

In the meantime, a weak surface boundary and some southern stream
forcing will keep a chance for showers in the forecast on Monday
although the synoptic front will be west of the region. Ahead of
the front we`ll likely be able to squeeze out one more day of
middle 70s across the region. The front will pass to the east of
us overnight with temperatures cooling into the low 50s and upper
40s. On Tuesday, we`ll likely be able to generate a little more
coverage across the region under some diffluence aloft between the
approaching northern stream shortwave and the departing southern
stream anomaly. This will all be post frontal, cool rain with
afternoon highs in the upper 50s area-wide. Rain will continue
through the night Tuesday with lows dipping to around 40 degrees.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast on Wednesday
as the northern stream shortwave finally clears out the moisture
and ushers in dry air. Wednesday night through Thursday night
expect lows in the mid to upper 30s. We`ll finish the week with
afternoon highs and overnight lows gradually climbing back up to
seasonal averages.


[Through 18Z Monday]

Line of thunderstorms will impact the terminals from west to east
through the afternoon with heavy rain and gusty winds. Storms should
clear KVLD by mid evening. However, IFR cigs will remain possible
through the overnight hours at all terminals.



A prolonged period of at least cautionary winds, and sometimes
advisory level will continue through mid-week when high pressure
will build into the Southeast. Showers will be possible through
Wednesday, and then dry to finish the week.


.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region for Monday. However,
humidity values are still forecast to remain well above critical
values, so there are no fire weather concerns.



Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches have occurred over most of
the area overnight and through the morning hours. Heavy rain with a
squall line this afternoon and evening will exit the area by
midnight, with additional amounts of .5 to 1 inch likely. Scattered
light rain will continue overnight and through Monday. Due to the
fast storm motion expected through this evening, flooding issues are
not expected, although some rises will be noted on area streams and
rivers by mid week.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  77  52  59  41 /  70  40  20  50  60
Panama City   66  72  53  59  44 /  60  30  10  50  60
Dothan        62  76  47  57  40 /  40  20  10  40  50
Albany        64  76  48  58  40 /  70  30  10  40  60
Valdosta      67  75  53  58  42 /  60  50  30  50  70
Cross City    68  74  58  64  45 /  50  50  40  60  70
Apalachicola  66  73  55  60  45 /  60  40  20  50  60


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay-
     South Walton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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