Area Forecast Discussion
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308 FXUS62 KTAE 171533 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this morning.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast period.
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&& .Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida Panhandle and Southern Alabama. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave will weaken with time while passing through the Southern Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December. .Marine... Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are not anticipated at this time. .Fire Weather... Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns. .Hydrology... With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected through the weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 64 38 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 63 43 65 48 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 62 40 63 43 63 / 0 0 0 10 30 Albany 62 37 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 64 37 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 67 36 68 41 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 63 42 63 47 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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