Area Forecast Discussion
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966 FXUS62 KTAE 251940 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Surface data across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico show an area of low pressure continuing to develop along a stalled frontal boundary. An area of isentropic ascent on the NW side of this low pressure area/frontal zone continues to produce widespread rain extending from TLH westward across the Panhandle and into SE Alabama. Model guidance is in good agreement that this area of ascent will reach its greatest magnitude around 21z this afternoon and then shift north of the area through the evening hours. As this occurs, a mid level trough will be moving across the Gulf Coast and as it nears the region, will sweep the low pressure area off to the NE resulting in clearing conditions around sunrise in the western areas. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in our northwestern zones Thursday night. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern states through the long term period. There are no significant chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] As the rain and clouds persist through the evening, so will the low CIGs. ECP, DHN and ABY will have MVFR conditions through 12Z when clearing should begin. TLH and VLD celings are currently IFR improving to MVFR after 00Z. Brief periods of IFR are possible at all terminals during heavy rainfall.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the remainder of the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days, with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.
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&& .Hydrology...
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For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points are expected to remain below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 45 60 36 63 34 / 100 10 0 0 0 Panama City 43 62 46 62 41 / 100 0 0 0 0 Dothan 42 59 38 58 34 / 100 0 0 0 0 Albany 42 59 35 60 33 / 100 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 44 60 36 61 35 / 100 20 0 0 0 Cross City 49 63 36 64 34 / 100 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 47 62 46 62 40 / 100 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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