Area Forecast Discussion
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468 FXUS62 KTAE 191418 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1018 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014 .Near Term [Today]...
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The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed an ill-defined, quasi-stationary front near the FL Panhandle coast and across north FL, with progressively higher pressure to the northeast. There was a lot of rain (in terms of area coverage) across our Gulf coastal waters, but mainly just sprinkles inland. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave trough over our forecast area. There was ample moisture above 700 mb but the lower troposphere was relatively dry. Most of the rain will continue to remain offshore until this afternoon, when Q-G forcing, mesoscale boundary interactions, and insolation will combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms- mainly in north FL and south central GA (where our highest PoP is 40%). There is some question regarding the amount of insolation we will actually get this afternoon, and we adjusted our high temperature forecast downward a bit (in line with the latest RAP) to account for the rather thick clouds. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday (primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification over North America. The one consistent trend has been the establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime across our area as another strong surface high builds into the Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening), with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon & evening.
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&& .Marine...
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As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center of the ridge move further into the Southeast.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 87 68 86 67 89 / 30 50 20 10 10 Panama City 86 71 86 71 88 / 30 50 20 10 10 Dothan 89 66 85 65 89 / 20 30 10 10 10 Albany 89 67 83 66 89 / 30 30 30 10 10 Valdosta 85 66 84 65 88 / 40 40 40 10 10 Cross City 84 66 86 65 88 / 40 50 40 20 20 Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 85 / 40 50 20 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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