Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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621 FXUS62 KTAE 160733 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 333 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS PATTERN KEEPS THE GULF COAST STATES BENEATH AN AREA OF FAST WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE GULF. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A COLD FRONT HAS BACK DOORED ITS WAY INTO SOUTH GA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND PERSISTENT MOIST AIR. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY AT UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO ACT AS LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE RESULT WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGH POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE AREAS WILL SET UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]... A VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL EXTEND ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GOMEX WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE NOW QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE, A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN, ON FRIDAY EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION. SATURDAY, WE SHOULD SEE POPS TAPERED FROM LIKELY (70%) FAR WEST ZONES TO SLIGHT (20%) EASTERN THIRD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN ANOTHER LOW TRANSLATING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EITHER LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST SO POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS OF SEEING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WON`T BE THAT MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JUNE.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY] IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AN EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORM ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND ARE INDICATED AS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL TERMINALS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THEY SHIFT TO ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, OUR EASTERN RIVERS REMAIN MOSTLY UNAFFECTED. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE RIVER STAGES TO REMAIN BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE IF BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 81 67 80 64 85 / 70 80 70 30 40 PANAMA CITY 77 69 77 67 80 / 80 70 60 20 60 DOTHAN 77 64 76 62 82 / 80 90 60 30 60 ALBANY 76 62 74 61 83 / 70 90 60 30 40 VALDOSTA 79 65 80 64 86 / 70 80 70 30 20 CROSS CITY 83 67 82 65 87 / 70 70 60 20 20 APALACHICOLA 80 71 78 68 80 / 70 60 70 20 50
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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