Area Forecast Discussion
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461 FXUS62 KTAE 301447 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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An upper level ridge is moving in from the west today. At the sfc low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area by this afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest today. The northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the late afternoon hours. Elsewhere cloud cover could persist until after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low to mid 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this afternoon.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Wednesday]... Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR to IFR cigs across the region. Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by late morning to early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late afternoon for VFR conditions to return to most of the area.
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&& .Hydrology...
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No flooding concerns since river levels are low and little to no rain is expected all week.
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&& .Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however, chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will be in the upper 80s. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. .Marine... Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase and approach cautionary levels. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 84 69 89 70 89 / 10 10 20 10 30 Panama City 85 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 40 Dothan 84 66 88 68 88 / 10 0 10 10 30 Albany 83 66 89 68 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 Valdosta 83 67 88 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 20 Cross City 85 69 88 68 88 / 30 20 30 20 30 Apalachicola 83 72 86 73 85 / 20 10 20 10 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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