Area Forecast Discussion
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861 FXUS62 KTAE 230729 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 329 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A weak frontal boundary will stall and begin to dissipate across the region today as a low-amplitude ridge builds over the southeastern states. Despite the presence of the weak boundary, the atmosphere is expected to be too dry and stable to support anything other than a very isolated brief shower or two, with PoPs below 10 percent at most. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s, except along the coast, where a vigorous seabreeze will hold temperatures down several degrees. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20 percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region, but with this system having less energy to work with than the one on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now. Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper 60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens. Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] Low clouds along with some fog is expected to spread across the Florida Panhandle into the Big Bend through the remainder of the overnight hours. This will result in IFR conditions at both KTLH and KECP. IFR conditions will also be possible at KABY, where some rain fell earlier. By mid-morning, VFR conditions should return and prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the forecast period.
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&& .Marine...
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Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage. Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day, expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below moderate flood stage by Friday. In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood category. For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage. Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the moderate flood levels. Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 82 59 84 60 85 / 10 0 10 10 10 Panama City 74 62 77 63 73 / 10 0 10 10 10 Dothan 81 59 85 61 86 / 0 0 10 10 10 Albany 82 57 85 60 86 / 0 0 20 10 10 Valdosta 82 60 84 59 85 / 0 0 30 20 10 Cross City 80 60 83 58 82 / 0 0 20 10 10 Apalachicola 75 60 76 61 72 / 10 0 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...BLOCK AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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