Area Forecast Discussion
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200
FXUS62 KTAE 250313
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1013 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With temps already running a few degrees below current
observations across the CWA late this evening, decided to drop
low temps a few degrees in general as well. This will bring many
interior locations very near the freezing point, with parts of our
N GA zones and SE AL, even dropping to near 30 degrees. However,
do not believe that frost will be much of a concern as temp and
dewpoint spreads appear too great at this time. This of course
will count on the Cold and Dry Air Advection to beat out the
saturated ground from Friday`s rainfall.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period at the terminals. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight
will be followed by gradually increasing cloudiness on Sunday,
which will also be accompanied by very gusty SW winds by late in
the afternoon. Any Cigs should that form should be at VFR levels.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Southerly flow will be in place on Sunday bringing warmer temps and
sunny skies. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Sunday night a
cold front will move through. Only a slight chance of rain is
expected Sunday night into Monday morning since moisture is scarce.
Some clouds may linger into Monday as the trough stalls over the
Atlantic Seaboard. At the sfc, cooler, drier air will move in on
Monday with highs in the 50s. Lows will be in the low 40s on Sunday
night and mid 30s on Monday night.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A deep upper level trough will remain over the Atlantic Seaboard
until Wednesday night when an upper level ridge builds in. High
pressure at the sfc will move in by Wednesday. Flow will be
northerly and cool, dry air will remain in place until Thursday when
another low pressure system approaches. Another cold front will move
through Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing only a
slight chance of rain. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs
generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s on Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Lows will be in
the 40s for the rest of the forecast period.


.Marine...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 pm EST. Winds will
decrease below 20 knots this evening. However, wave heights in
excess of 7 feet will continue in the outer waters until 10 pm EST.
Winds will become light overnight tonight, but will pick up again
Sunday night with Advisory conditions likely through Monday. By
Tuesday morning, moderate northerly winds are expected until
Wednesday night when winds shift to light and southerly.


.Fire Weather...

Even though much cooler and drier air will be moving into the
region during the next couple of days, no Red Flag conditions are
expected at anytime in the near future.


.Hydrology...

After the rain yesterday most of the area rivers are on the rise.
The Aucilla at Lamont and the Withlacoochee at Valdosta are
forecast to reach minor flood stage overnight tonight and tomorrow
night, respectively. Within the next week, more minor flooding will
be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee
rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  65  43  59  37 /   0   0  20  10   0
Panama City   43  64  46  57  41 /   0   0  20  10   0
Dothan        33  63  41  53  36 /   0   0  20  10   0
Albany        32  62  41  55  34 /   0   0  20  20   0
Valdosta      33  63  42  57  37 /   0   0  20  20   0
Cross City    33  64  44  60  37 /   0   0  20  10   0
Apalachicola  40  62  49  60  41 /   0   0  20  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...MCDERMOTT/GOULD/DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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