Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 100112
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
912 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2014
.Near Term [through Tonight]...
The large scale Srn stream pattern this evening is highlighted by
a cutoff low over Baja Mex, weak ridging over Wrn Gulf and largely
fast zonal flow across rest of Nrn Gulf region with RRQ of upper
Jet over marine area. Enhanced divergence downstream from low plus
proximity of jet aided in cyclogenesis over the Wrn Gulf waters and
in thin mid-upper clouds spreading Ewd over local area. At surface...
high pressure is centered over Ern Gulf with NW-SE oriented ridge
over local area. Looking north...weak WSW-ENE cold front across
Cntrl AL and N/Cntrl GA keeping local area in warm sector. Looking
west...an inverted trough of low pressure was noted from low NE LA
Swd into Gulf of Mex. Ahead of low...earlier assocd light rain
over our marine area was dissipating.
Overnight...Baja low will move Ewd into interior of Mex. The upper
jet will exit into Wrn Atlc with thin mid-high clouds decreasing
W-E. This should also shut down any precip and lower clouds should
largely dissipate. Not an ideal radiational cooling environment.
However...with rain ending (but boundary layer moisture in place
and area pre-dawn RAP13 soundings with PWATS around 1 inch) plus
low clouds eroding and light winds...expect patchy fog. The focus
will be over nearshore Panhandle waters and adjacent coastal
counties. CAM/SREF/Local confidence tool all show some fog in this
area. Under Wly flow sfc-high levels...expect mild lows...48 to 50
[Through 00z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period
with cigs above 15kft along with light winds Monday afternoon. A
brief period of patchy fog may develop around daybreak at all sites
but did not include in TAFS.
.Prev Discussion [150 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday Night]...
Much of the early part of the week will be marked by warm weather
and daily afternoon sea breezes. With water temperatures near the
coast around 60 degrees, and high temperatures at least into the
upper 70s, the sea breeze circulation could be fairly strong. For
Monday`s high temperature forecast, model guidance is clustered in
the upper 70s; we have followed that closely. On Tuesday, boundary
layer flow increases out of the southwest, which should push 850mb
temperatures into the +12 to +13C range. With fairly deep mixing,
this could allow some stations to hit the 80 degree mark. The only
potential limiting factor would be increasing mid-high level cloud
cover later in the day. For now, we`ve nudged highs up at TLH and
VLD to 80 and 82 degrees respectively.
For Tuesday Night, rain will begin arriving as a closed mid-upper
level low currently over the Gulf of California will eject east
along the Gulf coast. It should devolve into an open wave by the
time it reaches our area, and the trend will be for it to deampilfy.
Initially the strong shortwave approaching the Gulf may be
sufficient to create a weak surface low Monday Night or Tuesday
morning in the northwest Gulf. However, this may weaken into more of
a pre-frontal surface trough by the time it pushes further east,
with the main cold front expected to be further northwest.
Therefore, overall forcing will become weaker with time and this
should limit rainfall in our area on Tuesday Night. We maintained
the "likely" PoPs (~60%) over the area, with QPF around 0.25".
.Long Term [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The primary cold front is currently forecast to arrive in the
northwest part of our forecast area around 18z Wednesday - per model
consensus - before sweeping through in the afternoon. This should
allow for another fairly warm day with the possibility of some light
rain showers. After that, strong CAA will bring a period of below
normal temperatures with some frost potential by Thursday Night as
high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures should then
gradually moderate into next weekend ahead of the next digging
shortwave trough, which looks to arrive late Sunday or Monday.
Fairly light winds are expected through Tuesday, before southwest
winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday Night
and Wednesday. SCEC-level (15-20kt) winds seem likely ahead of the
front, with advisory winds likely behind the front on Wednesday
Night and early Thursday.
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
through mid-week. On Thursday, relative humidity values will drop to
the 20s in the wake of a cold front, but winds should remain below
red flag criteria. No red flag conditions are anticipated over the
There are currently no hydrology concerns across the region with a
few rivers in Action stage. The trend for the next week for these
rivers will be steady-state or subsiding. The next system bringing
rain to the area will be Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
but total rainfall amounts will be less than half an inch over any
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 49 78 53 80 58 / 0 0 0 20 60
Panama City 54 72 57 73 61 / 0 0 0 20 60
Dothan 50 78 55 78 61 / 0 0 0 20 60
Albany 48 78 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 20 60
Valdosta 49 80 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 60
Cross City 49 78 50 79 58 / 0 0 0 10 60
Apalachicola 52 71 55 71 60 / 0 0 0 20 60