Area Forecast Discussion
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124
FXUS62 KTAE 310806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

It`s been an interesting night with convection lingering later
than usual. The 00z KTAE sounding revealed a tall and skinny
CAPE profile with light deep layer flow, moderately steep lapse
rates, and deep moisture. Storm motions have been slow, and this
has resulted in some very impressive rainfall rates and localized
heavy amounts across the area. In fact, the Valdosta airport ASOS
measured 0.10 inches of rain in a one minute period between 1142
pm and 1143 pm with well over 2 inches in an hour. The KVAX dual-
pol radar did a good job with these instantaneous rates and hourly
rainfall amounts. Given these observations, there were likely some
areas that received brief, localized flooding, although no
flooding has been reported so far.

For the next 24 hours, we expect the ongoing convection to
diminish by sunrise. Convection is being driven by outflow
boundaries currently as there is little in the way of synoptic
scale forcing with an upper level ridge centered just east of the
area. In general, guidance was a little low on PoPs yesterday, and
we expect a similar environment to be in place today. Therefore,
the official PoPs went near or slightly above the highest guidance
(the locally run CAM ensemble) for most spots for this afternoon
and tonight. This results in a large area of 50 PoPs. Highs are
currently expected to be in the mid 90s this afternoon with heat
indices of 100 to 105, although that will depend on how much
morning cloud cover lingers across the area from the overnight
convection.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Very little will change in terms of the overall synoptic setup
from this weekend into the first couple days of the new work week.
This has led us to a forecast weighted more toward persistence,
although the latest model guidance also reflects similar scenarios
to what has been observed this weekend. Essentially, an upper
level ridge will continue to influence area weather with weak flow
through the troposphere and warmer-than-normal temperatures. The
forecast calls for a continuation of scattered thunderstorms, with
coverage peaking in the afternoon to early evening, and highs in
the mid-90s away from the coast. We may see a continuation of
locally heavy rainfall as well given slow storm motions and PWATs
around seasonal normals (1.8 to 1.9 inches).


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the
Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early
in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the
lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will
near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to
the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of
the period, rain chances will be on the increase. Temperatures
throughout the long term period will generally be a couple of
degrees above climatology through Thursday and then near normal
late in the period due to increased convective activity.


&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Monday] Convection is still active at this early hour
around VLD and not too far from TLH. Expect this convection to
diminish by sunrise with mainly VFR conditions prevailing after
sunrise. However, another afternoon of scattered convection is
expected across the area today.

&&

.Marine...

Wave periods will continue to be a little higher than normal (6-7
seconds) with a broad area of breezy southeast winds over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should maintain seas around 3 feet
offshore and to the west of Apalachicola. The winds and seas
should diminish closer to normal summertime levels around Monday
Night or Tuesday. Some 2 foot surf is likely again today, with 3
foot sets likely in Walton County and perhaps western Bay County.
Active rip currents will be possible - particularly from Panama
City Beach and points further west.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next
week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  73  96  74  95 /  50  40  30  10  30
Panama City   92  77  91  77  91 /  50  20  30  10  30
Dothan        95  73  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  10  30
Albany        96  73  97  74  96 /  40  50  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  72  96  73  95 /  50  50  40  20  30
Cross City    94  73  94  72  94 /  50  40  30  20  30
Apalachicola  91  76  91  77  91 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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