Area Forecast Discussion
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006 FXUS62 KTAE 231758 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 158 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The main focus continues to be on the oppressive heat and humidity across the region. As of 1PM all of our ASOS sites were in the middle to upper 90s with Tallahassee leading the way with 98 degrees. Dewpoints were holding in the lower 70s still for most locations, though a pocket of cooler dewpoints is starting to mix down across south-central Georgia. A larger area of dry air aloft was noted over south Georgia today compared to yesterday. Essentially what this means is that across Georgia, expect heat indices to be their highest (btwn 108-110) in the early afternoon, gradually decreasing thereafter as deep mixing becomes fully established. Elsewhere, dewpoints will remain relatively high and be slower to mix out. All of north Florida should expect heat indices above 108 for a long duration today. Nearer to the coast and along the Panhandle, expect excessive heat index values (btwn 110 and 114), due to the fact that mixing won`t be as effective and to the overall proximity to the Gulf. Not much convection developing as of yet, though still expect a modest scattering of storms along the Panhandle and Big Bend seabreeze fronts beginning within the next couple of hours. Locations outside of Florida will most likely not see any meaningful rain, though an isolated, short-lived, shower may be possible here-and-there. Some gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms across north Florida due to the drier mid- level air in place. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday night]... For much of Sunday, the powerful and hot upper ridge will maintain control over the region, with temperatures forecast to reach triple digits once again for many locations. However, by mid to late afternoon, a trough digging down the eastern seaboard will push a backdoor cold front into south central Georgia. Along with the front, expect to see a bit more cloud cover and increased rain chances, especially northwest of a line from Cross City to Albany. This should keep temperatures sub-100 in these areas. However, southwest of the front, the extreme heat will continue. Heat indices are once again forecast to reach at least 108 during the afternoon, so have issued a Heat Advisory for these areas. By Monday, northeasterly flow will increase as high pressure noses down the eastern seaboard. Expect to see a few storms early in the day over the southwestern portion of the forecast area. However, PoPs will be minimal elsewhere as a much drier low-level airmass moves in. The airmass will be `cooler` as well, with high temperatures only expected to reach the lower to mid 90s Monday afternoon. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal. Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will remain relatively low.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] Outside of a small window where thunderstorms will be possible at ECP, VFR conditions should prevail through the entire TAF.
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&& .Marine...
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Westerly to northwesterly winds will continue over the coastal waters through Sunday before shifting to the northeast Sunday night into Monday as a backdoor front moves across the region. Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria late on Monday before diminishing during the day on Tuesday. Winds and seas will decrease further by the middle of the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions.
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&& .Hydrology...
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There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, however no impacts are expected on river levels.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 76 100 77 94 72 / 20 30 30 20 10 Panama City 80 97 79 92 74 / 20 20 30 30 10 Dothan 75 98 75 92 70 / 10 40 30 20 0 Albany 76 97 74 91 70 / 10 50 30 10 0 Valdosta 73 99 74 92 69 / 10 50 30 10 10 Cross City 75 99 75 93 71 / 20 50 30 20 10 Apalachicola 79 96 79 92 75 / 20 20 30 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Dixie-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton- Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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