Area Forecast Discussion
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599 FXUS62 KTAE 240123 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 923 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The regional mid/upper pattern is marked by a large ridge of high pressure with subsidence aloft. At surface...a weak frontal boundary located invcnty of I-10 at 9 PM EDT will move Swd into the waters overnight leaving a rather weak pressure pattern in place. This boundary marked on satellite by thinning CU. In its wake...drier air clearly will slowly shift Swd in tandem with front. All this reflected in RAP13 00z soundings which show light NLY flow becoming calm after midnight at lowest levels and WLY flow above. However with proximity of front...lowest level still moist with PWATS near 1 inch over N FL down to around 0.8 inches across SE AL and Nrn tier GA counties decreasing to 0.8 to 0.6 inches S-N by sunrise. Dew points ranging from mid 50s north to around 60F across coastal counties plus near calm winds will favor the development of at least patchy fog after midnight for AL/GA....areas of fog inland N FL and areas of dense fog coastal FL counties. CAM/SREF/local confidence fog products all show this trend. Would not be surprised of a dense fog advisory is issued for portions of our CWA...especially south of I-10. Other than a stray shower or sprinkles along the coast or adjacent waters before midnight...no rain is expected. Expect lows from mid 50s Nrn most counties to around 60 coastal counties.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Friday] Lingering cloud cover around 5000-7000 feet should quickly dissipate this evening, leaving mostly clear skies. Model forecasts consistently show low CIGS and fog advancing inland from near the Gulf coast later tonight, especially after 06z. Some of the fog could be dense. We included 1/2SM FG at TLH and ECP, with some IFR fog at VLD and MVFR at DHN and ABY. By 14z, we are forecasting all terminals to be VFR for the remainder of the period.
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&& .Prev Discussion [307 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... Surface high pressure and light southeast flow at the lower levels over our area should force a sea-breeze over the Panhandle and Big Bend tomorrow, but with a fairly dry airmass in place, this isn`t expected to cause a lot of rain so much as an increase in afternoon cloud cover over the area, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. With a mid-level shortwave over the western Florida Peninsula and south-central Georgia, however, the chance for thunderstorms and showers increases slightly (to around 30%) for the eastern portions of our forecast area tomorrow afternoon. Highs Thursday will be in the mid 80s with noticeably cooler temps along the immediate coastline in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Thursday night will stay around 60. On Friday, an approaching cold front will begin to decay as it approaches us with the upper level low supporting it begins to de-amplify and lift northeastward. Rain chances will be around 20% for our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties on Friday with highs in the mid-80s once again and lows in the low 60s. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest, an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week, reducing the chances of severe weather. .Marine... Nocturnal surges in the Apalachee Bay and afternoon surges along the coastline due to the sea-breeze will bump up winds to around 15 knots, with winds further offshore staying around 10 knots or less and seas around 1 to 2 feet through the weekend. Ahead of our next cold front, winds and seas will begin to pick up Monday, but are expected to remain below headline criteria at this time. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds into the weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated. .Hydrology... Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most area rivers have already crested with the exception of the Suwannee where river levels will rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 60 84 60 85 63 / 0 10 10 10 10 Panama City 64 77 63 75 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dothan 57 84 60 85 62 / 0 10 10 20 10 Albany 56 84 60 86 62 / 0 10 10 20 10 Valdosta 59 85 59 85 61 / 0 20 20 10 10 Cross City 59 83 58 82 62 / 0 20 10 10 10 Apalachicola 62 75 61 74 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BLOCK/MOORE FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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