Area Forecast Discussion
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093 FXUS62 KTAE 311459 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1059 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year) the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass will be preceded by a dry cold front which will approach the region from the NW this evening. Outside of some patchy Cirrus and slowly increasing N-NW winds, not much in the way of weather will be indicative that such a cold blast of air will be on its way.
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&& .Prev Discussion [443 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... As has been well advertised for the past few days, a big cold snap is coming this weekend. A rather anomalously large upper low will drop into the Southern US by Saturday morning pushing a dry cold front across the forecast area by daybreak. The surface pressure gradient between a developing low pressure area off the Carolina coast and an arctic high pressure area moving down the Mississippi River Valley will generate strong northerly winds quickly ushering in this much colder airmass. The cold advection behind this front will be sufficiently strong that high temperatures on Saturday will likely struggle to warm out of the 50s, which is rather incredible for the first day of November. The current forecast highs for Saturday are very near record low maximum levels for the date. By Saturday night, the core of the high pressure area will be building over the Tennessee River Valley with the ridge axis extending southward to the Central Gulf Coast. The models differ here in whether the position of the ridge is close enough to result in light to calm winds across the region by sunrise. The NAM and Euro MOS for 31/00z are surprisingly similar in temperatures in the lower 30s across the region with winds very near or precisely calm by 12z Sunday. Only the GFS shows winds in the 4 to 6 kt range throughout the night and accordingly has warmer min temperatures. The MOS (excluding the MAV) would seem to indicate a borderline freeze across some of our interior counties - mainly from TLH-ABY and westward. However, the surface pressure fields in the model would suggest that it would be unlikely that surface winds become calm by sunrise. While the incoming airmass will be very cold, I`m just not confident we`ll effectively radiate in this pattern or that we can advect temperatures much cooler than the mid 30s into the region by daybreak on Sunday. As a result, will utilize a forecast blend heavily weighted toward the previous forecast - which was warmer than the 00z guidance set - and the 00z GFS. This results in lows generally in the mid 30s in western areas and in the upper 30s in the east. Should future forecasts suggest the ridge center will be located further south, downward adjustments to the min temp forecast may be needed. In areas with the mid 30s, frost is unlikely since the airmass will be especially dry. The moderating trend for afternoon temperatures begins on Sunday as high pressure builds just north of the region. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s, which is still around 10 degrees below normal for early November. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The extended forecast will be marked by gradually moderating temperatures and mostly dry weather as a mid-upper level ridge builds across the eastern US and we transition into more of a +NAO/+AO regime. Highs should be closer to 80 degrees by the middle of next week. The next chance of rain is expected to hold off until Wednesday at the earliest. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Saturday] Nearly unlimited VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all of the Taf sites, but the initially light winds will be on the increase out of the NW both this aftn and tonight at most of the terminals. .Marine... Winds will be on the increase this afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage from Thursday evening. Winds will sharply increase around midnight as a reinforcing cold front surges across the marine area. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected behind this front with sustained winds possibly nearing gale force as well. Saturday afternoon, high pressure will build near enough to the marine area to eliminate the threat for gale force gusts, though advisory conditions will continue into Sunday. High pressure will then build to the northeast of the marine area starting a period of moderate easterly flow. .Fire Weather... A much colder and drier air mass will rush into the region this weekend behind a very strong but dry cold front. This unseasonably cold airmass will generate quite strong and gusty transport winds and very high dispersions. Red flag conditions may still be possible over parts of the region on Sunday, but the chilly afternoon temps appear likely to keep relative humidities just above Red Flag levels at this time. .Hydrology... Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no impacts expected along area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 73 41 58 38 64 / 0 10 0 0 0 Panama City 74 42 59 41 63 / 0 10 0 0 0 Dothan 72 38 57 35 62 / 0 10 0 0 0 Albany 72 39 57 37 62 / 0 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 73 41 57 37 62 / 0 10 0 0 0 Cross City 75 45 58 39 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 44 59 42 63 / 0 10 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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