Area Forecast Discussion
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479 FXUS62 KTAE 260816 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 316 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most inland areas Friday morning. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR with occasional IFR conditions will impact VLD during the pre-dawn hours. There may be a brief MVFR ceiling at TLH and ABY as well, but it is more likely the a mid level cloud deck will maintain VFR ceilings until sunrise. Clearing will occur from northwest to southeast from 09-14Z.
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&& .Marine...
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Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the upcoming weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and Big Bend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points are expected to remain below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 62 39 62 33 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 47 60 40 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 40 57 33 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 58 32 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 39 60 32 57 / 30 0 0 0 0 Cross City 63 39 63 33 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 48 61 40 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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