Area Forecast Discussion
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003 FXUS62 KTAE 271524 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1024 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Weak surface high pressure will continue to push eastward off of the mid-Atlantic coast today as a deepening upper level trough swings across the southwestern CONUS. Regional 13Z surface analysis shows a cold front extending south-southwestward through MO, Wrn AR, and Ern TX. Two warm front boundaries were analyzed, one along the Gulf coast from TX to AL, and one extending eastward from a developing surface low near Palestine, TX that arches across Srn AR into central MS. Scattered areas of light rain have already begun popping up on local radar imagery north of the coastal warm front boundary and are expected to continue to do so through the day. Coverage will remain highest to our west, but SE AL and the FL Panhandle have 30-40% chance of seeing light rain at some point today. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Sunday] Mid-level cloud cover will increase through the day with light winds generally from the southeast. Periodic light rain will be possible near DHN and ECP.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Current river data this morning shows that the crest wave in the Ochlockonee is now approaching Havana and will be entering the upper end of Lake Talquin this afternoon. Flows above Concord are in recession, though it will take some time before water levels at this site drop enough to lessen impacts in the northern portion of Leon County. Inflows into Lake Talquin and operations at Jackson Bluff will result in rises at Bloxham to near flood stage today. This will also result in additional rises downstream into Wakulla County where minor flooding is possible at Smith Creek. In the Withlacoochee System - Both Hahira on the Little River side and Skipper Bridge on the Withlacoochee side have crested. Combined flow between these two sources is around 35000cfs. Due to a variety of factors, a reduction of this combined flow by 15 percent historically has produced a decent prediction for the US-84 gage. This yields a crest in the 28.5 to 29 foot range late Sunday night. These conditions suggest that the Withlacoochee at Pinetta will remain at action stage for some time and potentially approach flood stage around the first of the year. Elsewhere in the hydro area, releases from Woodruff on the Apalachicola have stabilized around 47000cfs which will result in Blountstown rising to near 17.3 feet on late Sunday evening. The Choctawhatchee River at Caryville has already crested and with the flood wave moving downstream receiving minor contributions from Bruce Creek and Holmes Creek along the way, Bruce should easily rise above flood stage late tomorrow. There is some potential for moderate flood stage to be met at Bruce by Tuesday morning. Our next system will deliver another chance of 1 to 2 inches of rain starting Sunday night and continuing through Monday night. A short period of quiet weather is expected throughout the remainder of the week before a stronger storm system approaches the area next Saturday. With little opportunity to dry out from the recent heavy rains, the flood potential will remain elevated across the region with river flows now well above normal. For the most up to date information, please visit: http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
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&& .Prev Discussion [406 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... A low pressure system will be moving through the Southeast during this period. Most of the rainfall associated with this system will stay to the north, but a cold front will pass on Monday. Northwestern parts of the CWA will see a slight chance for rain on Sunday and a good chance for rain on Monday morning. Elsewhere, about a 30 percent chance for rain on Monday. Isolated thunder is possible. Temps will be warmer with southerly flow at the sfc. Lows will be in the upper 50s and highs will be in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and low to mid 70s on Monday. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The upper level pattern will be zonal throughout this forecast period. High pressure will begin to build in on Tuesday bringing cooler drier air at the sfc. Moisture will advect back into the region on Friday as another Gulf Low spins up south of Texas bringing southerly flow. With the low and associated fronts well to our north and west rain chances will be low at this time and confined to the northwestern portion of the CWA. Clouds will advect in well ahead of this system on Friday. Temps will be seasonable with lows mainly in the 40s and highs mainly in the 60s. .Marine... Low winds and seas will prevail for the next few days as weak high pressure in place currently is followed by a weak low. Expect winds to pick up midweek as the pressure gradient tightens. Advisory level winds are not expected at this time. Cautionary levels are likely on Tuesday night. .Fire Weather... Easterly flow, veering southerly, will increase moisture levels across the region over the next several days. This will preclude hazardous fire weather conditions.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 72 55 76 60 74 / 10 10 10 40 30 Panama City 67 59 76 63 72 / 20 20 20 50 30 Dothan 66 56 75 58 70 / 30 40 30 60 30 Albany 68 53 76 59 72 / 10 20 20 50 30 Valdosta 71 56 77 60 75 / 10 10 10 30 30 Cross City 75 57 77 60 76 / 10 10 10 30 20 Apalachicola 68 59 73 63 72 / 10 10 10 40 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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