Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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328 FXUS62 KTAE 310028 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 828 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A REGION OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GA AND AL. ISOLATED REMNANT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EARLIER STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME MAINLY SMALL HAIL WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MIX. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 08Z OR SO WHEN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND ANY OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY PASS OVER A TERMINAL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [400 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER FORECAST SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW, WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE GREATEST CONCERNS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST INLAND AREAS WILL CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE LOW 60S AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SUGGESTING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON, WARMER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT. .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSION VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 56 81 62 83 59 / 10 30 20 30 10 PANAMA CITY 62 74 65 75 62 / 20 10 10 20 10 DOTHAN 56 79 60 80 60 / 10 40 30 40 20 ALBANY 52 79 60 81 59 / 10 40 30 40 20 VALDOSTA 53 79 60 80 59 / 10 40 30 40 20 CROSS CITY 55 80 60 82 59 / 10 20 30 30 20 APALACHICOLA 63 75 66 78 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...GODSEY/MERRIFIELD LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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