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336
FXUS62 KTAE 031133 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
733 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2013

.UPDATE...Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAF package.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 02 UTC surface analysis showed light east winds across our
forecast area, with an east-west oriented ridge to our northeast.
There was a sharp trough along the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which is likely to become a tropical cyclone during the
next day or so as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. This
disturbance`s satellite presentation appeared to be fairly well
organized with good outflow north and east, but the main area of
deep moist convection was displaced slightly to the east of the
surface trough.

Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a 500 mb ridge along the
Southeast coast, with a weak short wave trough lifting
northeastward over the Tennessee Valley ahead of a broad long
wave trough developing over the western CONUS. The latest NWP
model guidance forecasts a similar day to Wednesday in our region,
with slight rain chances (20%) along the FL Panhandle coast and
a PoP of less than 10% elsewhere. With increasing high clouds from
the tropical disturbance well to our south, highs will be in the
mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
By Friday moisture will start to increase ahead of the approaching
tropical system. However, it is still expected to be far enough
south to keep significant rain chances out of the area with just
30% PoPs across the western areas.

By Saturday morning, the 03/00z global model guidance ranges from
about 130 miles south of New Orleans on the Canadian/ECMWF to
about 200 miles south of Mobile on the GFS. It is possible some
outer bands could start affecting the coastal areas by Saturday
afternoon. However, the possibility of more significant impacts is
currently expected to hold off until Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The start of the long range period will depend heavily on the
tropical system in the Gulf. For the 03/00z suite of guidance, the
GFS is along the eastern edge of the guidance across the Panhandle
by Sunday morning with the Canadian, Euro, and UKMET back more
towards the Alabama coast. Overall, guidance seems a little slower
to make landfall compared to previous runs, but all guidance does
show a fairly quick exit northeastward by Monday. However,
regardless of its exact track and strength, deep layer moisture
will be streaming northward into the region with rather high rain
chances, especially over the western areas. As with any tropical
system, heavy rainfall rates will be concern. A gradual tapering
of PoPs is expected by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12 UTC Friday] VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with exception of a period of MVFR visibility expected at VLD
after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect winds to be on the increase out of the southeast through
this weekend as a tropical disturbance moves into the central and
eventually northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds will likely reach
advisory criteria by late Friday across the western waters and
remain high with building seas into the weekend. Gradually
improving conditions are expected by next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely through at least this early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flows remain above base levels for early October with area
soils still quite moist from the summer rains. The incoming tropical
system this weekend will need to be closely monitored. A more
organized tropical system could easily produce enough rainfall to
result in a fair amount of areal and riverine flooding into next
week. However, considerable uncertainty remains in its eventual
track, speed, and strength.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  67  89  71  87 / 10  10  10  10  30
Panama City   86  72  86  73  85 / 10  20  30  20  40
Dothan        86  64  89  68  85 / 10   0  10  10  30
Albany        87  64  89  66  87 /  0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      85  64  88  66  88 /  0   0  10  10  10
Cross City    87  67  88  68  87 /  0  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  82  72  84  74  83 / 10  10  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Fournier
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...DVD
Hydrology...DVD/Godsey