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249
FXUS62 KTAE 040101
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2013

...A widespread freeze is expected tonight with frost likely...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...

Winds will diminish as a surface ridge quietly slips overhead
tonight. Coupled with the dry air and clear skies, this will make
for an optimal radiational cooling night. Expect widespread
freezing temperatures, with the coldest temperatures expected over
the southeast Big Bend of Florida. Here, temperatures may fall as
low as 24 degrees with most other locations expected to fall into
the upper 20s. Widespread frost is expected for most areas. The
exception to this would be across portions of southeast Alabama
and southern Georgia where some mid level clouds may trickle in
through the night. In these spots, the frost may be a bit more
patchy. The only other feature to note is some smoke near Panama
City, discussed in the aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

After a rather cold start across the region with a Light Freeze
expected overnight, afternoon temperatures should finally moderate
back up into the middle 60s across most areas on Monday afternoon
under plenty of sunshine. Monday night should be quite a bit
milder as well as surface winds begin to veer around to the south.
Low temps are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s in a
small area near the Suwannee Valley to the upper 40s to lower 50s
to the west of the Apalachicola River. On Tuesday and Tuesday
night, the next (and last for quite some time) Low Pressure system
and associated Cold Front will approach the region from the west
and swing rapidly through the CWA overnight Tuesday night. While
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with
this system, we are only anticipating a low QPF event (with Storm
Total Precip between .05" and .15"), so this additional rainfall
will have almost no impact on our ongoing River Flooding. Also, it
should be noted that High Temps will finally break back into the
lower to middle 70s before any showers or storms reach the area.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

After the next Low Pressure System and associated Cold Front
Sweep through our CWA on Tuesday Night, a very benign Synoptic
Pattern appears in store for the region throughout the extended
period. Since this initial Cold Front does not appear to be a
significant QPF producer (due to lack of return flow moisture and
its very progressive movement), and with no additional rainfall
expected after this system, conditions will be ideal for our area
rivers, many which are still in Flood Stage, to continue to
subside. As for temperatures, we do expect a shot of cooler and
drier air behind the front from Wed-Fri (though not nearly as cold
as this last air mass), with conditions returning to back towards
or even a bit milder than climatology for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 01Z Monday]...

Unlimited vis and cigs will continue through Monday, with light
winds. The one exception might be at KECP tonight, where smoke from
a large, but controlled fire upstream may cause slight visibility
restrictions until mid morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will fall to below headline criteria by midnight
tonight. Winds will begin to veer from northwest to southeast
with the passage of a surface ridge over the next 24 hours. Then,
winds and seas will begin to approach cautionary levels once again
on Monday night and Tuesday, as the next cold front approaches the
coastal waters from the west. Behind this cold front, a strong
Small Craft Advisory is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
night with gusty northwesterly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected tomorrow, but ERCs and wind speeds
will be too low for red flag warnings. A chance of rain is back in
the forecast for Tuesday with drier conditions returning by
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Slow improvement continues to be noted along many of the rivers in
our area, although many of the lower portions of the rivers are
still in flood stage. Flows are on the decrease on the Chipola,
Ochlockonee, Choctawhatchee, and Flint Rivers.

The Withlacoochee at Pinetta is in the process of cresting, though
it will likely remain at or near its crest height of 84.3 feet for
the next 18 to 24 hours before beginning a slow decrease. There
still is a lot of water to drain down the Withlacoochee toward the
Suwannee River, so flooding along the eastern portion of Madison
County, particularly south of the Pinetta gage, will be slow to
subside.

The primary focus for river flooding will shift to the Suwannee
River by Tuesday. Unusually high inflows from the Withlacoochee and
Alapaha Rivers will help drive the Suwannee River at Ellaville to
flood stage by Tuesday. Interestingly, the Alapaha River at
Statenville has not crested yet and is only now beginning to show a
slower rate of rise. Because we continue to see Top 4 or better
flows on the Alapaha and Withlacoochee Rivers, we feel increasingly
confident that moderate flood stages will be reached along the
Suwannee River at Ellaville and likely further downriver to Dowling
Park by the weekend.

As the flood wave continues down river, we expect at least minor
flooding from Luraville through Branford, though there is potential
of reaching moderate flood stage at Branford. However, this has less
confidence than upriver at Dowling Park. Further down the Suwannee
River, much depends on how backwater flow up the Santa Fe River
influences the Suwannee River crestwave. Moreover, attenuation of
the flow downstream is possible given the drier soil conditions in
place across Southern Lafayette and Dixie Counties. Thus, it is
still a little too early to make a firm prediction on whether
flood stages will be met on the lower Suwannee River (Rock Bluff and
beyond).

---Points still to crest or cresting now---

Withlacoochee at Pinetta - Moderate flood stage
Aucilla River at Lamont - Minor flood stage

---Points that have crested but are still in flood stage---

Choctawhatchee River at Caryville - Minor flood stage
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce - Major flood stage
Chipola River at Altha - Moderate flood stage
Flint River at Bainbridge - Minor flood stage
Ochlockonee River near Concord - Minor flood stage
Ochlockonee River near Havana - Moderate flood stage
Apalachicola River at Blountstown - Minor flood stage
Withlacoochee River above Valdosta - Minor flood stage.

---Flood Outlook for the Suwannee River---

Forecast confidence is now very high for at least minor flood stages
being met at Ellaville and Dowling Park. There is increasing
confidence that these sites will eventually reach low end moderate
flood stage by the weekend.

Further downriver, there is more uncertainly but still a good chance
of reaching minor flood stage at Branford.

Updated predicted crest ranges and crest times as of 230 pm Sunday

At Ellaville - 60 to 62.5 feet (March 9th)

At Dowling Park - 51.5 to 53.5 feet (March 10th)

At Luraville - 44.5 to 47.5 feet (March 11th)

At Branford - 31.5 to 34 feet (March 12th)

For specific crest levels and initial timing of flood stage and
crests, please consult our AHPS page by clicking on Rivers and
Lakes on our website. This can be found at the following web
address.

water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   27  65  42  74  45 /  0   0   0  20  30
Panama City   38  62  53  72  47 /  0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        29  64  48  71  40 /  0   0  10  30  30
Albany        29  64  43  72  41 /  0   0   0  30  40
Valdosta      27  64  39  72  44 /  0   0   0  10  30
Cross City    25  65  37  73  48 /  0   0   0   0  30
Apalachicola  33  59  51  70  48 /  0   0   0  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Freeze Warning from Midnight EST (11 PM CST) tonight to 9 AM
     EST (8 AM CST) Monday for north Florida, excluding the
     panhandle coast.

GA...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     south Georgia.

AL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Monday
     for southeast Alabama.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Gould
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan/Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey