Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 191418
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014
.Near Term [Today]...
The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed an ill-defined,
quasi-stationary front near the FL Panhandle coast and across
north FL, with progressively higher pressure to the northeast.
There was a lot of rain (in terms of area coverage) across our
Gulf coastal waters, but mainly just sprinkles inland. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave trough
over our forecast area. There was ample moisture above 700 mb but
the lower troposphere was relatively dry. Most of the rain will
continue to remain offshore until this afternoon, when Q-G
forcing, mesoscale boundary interactions, and insolation will
combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms- mainly in
north FL and south central GA (where our highest PoP is 40%).
There is some question regarding the amount of insolation we will
actually get this afternoon, and we adjusted our high temperature
forecast downward a bit (in line with the latest RAP) to account
for the rather thick clouds.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.
[Through 12Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon & evening.
As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 87 68 86 67 89 / 30 50 20 10 10
Panama City 86 71 86 71 88 / 30 50 20 10 10
Dothan 89 66 85 65 89 / 20 30 10 10 10
Albany 89 67 83 66 89 / 30 30 30 10 10
Valdosta 85 66 84 65 88 / 40 40 40 10 10
Cross City 84 66 86 65 88 / 40 50 40 20 20
Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 85 / 40 50 20 20 10