Area Forecast Discussion
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972 FXUS62 KTAE 040829 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 329 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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With moist southerly low-level flow in place, fog is expected to be widespread this morning, with areas of dense fog mainly west of the river. The bulk of the fog will burn off by midday (outside of some sea fog lingering right along the coast) with temperatures warming into the 80s, thanks to a building ridge aloft. Forecast high for Tallahassee is 82 degrees, just one degree short of the daily record (83 degrees) set in 1992. A shower or two cannot be ruled out over the western portion of the forecast area (closer to the western edge of the ridge). However, the bulk of the rainfall will remain north and west of the forecast area, closer to a southward moving cold front. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... For tonight, we expect some combination of low stratus and fog across the area as northward moisture flux continues in advance of the approaching cold front. The fog could be dense in spots. The front will arrive on Thursday, and should be accompanied by some light-moderate showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Although we have some low rain chances in the western part of our area tonight, we expect most of the rain to arrive after 15Z Thursday with the best chances focused between then and 00Z Friday. Likely PoPs (~60%) are indicated, but an all-day washout is not expected. Rain at any specific location may only last an hour or two. Models still indicate falling temperatures behind the front, so the trends may not be typical of what we usually see in the daytime hours, primarily in the western half of the area where the front will be more likely to arrive by midday. CAA will continue on Thursday Night with a cool day in store on Friday with high temperatures far below normal levels. This will be due to lingering cloud cover, in addition to the CAA, behind the surface cold front. For March 6th the normal high at TLH is 72 and our forecast high is 54. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Through the extended period, models maintain west-southwesterly flow aloft with occasional rain chances as a variety of waves eject east. However, individual models differ on the timing with dry periods indicated at times as well. As a compromise, we have continued to forecast low rain chances through the period with below normal high temperatures.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] Fog and low CIGS will impact all terminals overnight, with KECP, KDHN, and KTLH occasionally reaching airport minimums. Conditions will slowly improve during the morning hours with MVFR/VFR conditions expected during the afternoon. However, the low CIGS and vsby will likely return shortly after sunset.
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&& .Marine...
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The latest satellite imagery suggests that the low stratus and fog has consolidated closer to the coast. Therefore, the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been reconfigured to be valid for the nearshore legs until 16Z. The advisory may need to be extended further and reconfigured again depending on trends today. Either way, we do expect periods of fog across the coastal waters until the front arrives - or through Thursday morning. Over that same time period, winds should be around 10 knots. Behind the front on Thursday afternoon, winds will veer to the north and increase to advisory levels across at least part of the waters.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The only river point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to cause significant rises on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 82 62 75 46 55 / 10 10 60 30 30 Panama City 73 63 67 43 54 / 20 20 50 20 30 Dothan 79 64 64 37 51 / 20 40 60 20 20 Albany 82 63 71 40 50 / 10 20 60 20 30 Valdosta 85 62 80 47 51 / 10 10 60 30 30 Cross City 82 61 79 56 60 / 0 10 20 30 30 Apalachicola 71 63 69 48 56 / 20 10 50 30 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Liberty. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Calhoun- Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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