Area Forecast Discussion
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361 FXUS62 KTAE 281858 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 258 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Isolated showers continue mainly beyond 20 miles offshore showing little movement. Overnight we will see an increase in convection across the coastal waters as tropical moisture surges northward on the east side of a tropical wave heading toward Texas. Some of this activity may reach the coastal areas before daybreak. Otherwise, no rain is expected. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s along the immediate coast to the mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... A weak tropical wave is forecast to lift north across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, pushing well inland by late Saturday. With a ridge building aloft over the region through the weekend, the best lift associated with the wave will likely be west of the forecast area. However, expect to see deep layer moisture increase from south to north across the area during the day on Friday, with higher rain chances primarily over the southern half of the area. The deep moisture will remain in place through Saturday, with good chance to likely PoPs in the forecast once again. Temperatures will vary from north to south on Friday, with higher max temps across Georgia/Alabama where PoPs will be lower (lower 90s vs. mid 90s). With more widespread coverage on Saturday, high temps should only reach the lower 90s everywhere. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above normal.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] A brief period of MVFR VIS is possible with fog at VLD around sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be spreading inland from the Gulf mainly after daybreak. With the exception of ECP, the convection should reach the TAF sites after 18z Friday.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will turn to the southeast tonight and then south on Friday as a weak tropical wave moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which should remain below 15 knots, will continue into early next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Increasing moisture with higher relative humidity values will return beginning Friday. No fire weather at least through the upcoming weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 68 93 74 92 74 / 10 50 30 50 30 Panama City 75 91 77 89 77 / 10 60 40 50 30 Dothan 68 95 74 92 73 / 0 30 20 60 30 Albany 66 96 73 93 74 / 0 20 20 60 40 Valdosta 66 94 72 93 72 / 0 40 20 50 30 Cross City 70 92 73 92 72 / 10 50 40 50 20 Apalachicola 73 89 76 89 76 / 10 60 40 40 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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