Area Forecast Discussion
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450 FXUS62 KTAE 192001 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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AS OF 2 PM EDT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE STORMS PASS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SO FAR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES. RAIN WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. .SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]... AN UL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWEEP EWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS NRN MS AND AL MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR WITH TOMORROW`S SYSTEM THAN WE SAW WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH TOMORROW, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR TOMORROW THAN TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MID 80S AND CREATE SOME INSTABILITY. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE PEAKING AROUND 1000- 1500 J/KG IN AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 20-40%, SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING IN A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]... THE UNSETTLED EL-NINOISH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE AROUND 20-40% THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING FAIRLY WARM, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS JUST EAST OF TLH HEADING TOWARDS VLD. VLD WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG WINDS AS THIS LINE PASSES. ELSEWHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS PASSED, BUT RAIN AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
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&& .MARINE...
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CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS TODAY WILL LOWER, THOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. AFTER THAT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER TO NORMAL LEVELS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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AFTER A WETTING RAIN TODAY, RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE RECEIVING 3-5" OF RAIN. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN RISES ALONG MANY OF OUR AREA RIVERS, WITH MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT CARRYVILLE IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT BRUCE TOMORROW. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS ALSO FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AND THE KINCHAFOONNEE CREEK AT DAWSON IS FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 69 86 62 81 58 / 20 30 10 0 10 PANAMA CITY 73 78 64 74 65 / 20 30 0 0 10 DOTHAN 67 82 58 78 58 / 20 20 10 0 10 ALBANY 67 83 59 78 58 / 20 30 10 0 10 VALDOSTA 68 86 60 78 57 / 20 30 20 0 10 CROSS CITY 70 86 63 81 59 / 30 40 20 10 10 APALACHICOLA 73 82 66 77 65 / 20 30 10 0 0
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY- COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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