Area Forecast Discussion
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972 FXUS62 KTAE 311124 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 620 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]... The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed the cold front that passed through our forecast area early Friday was in south FL, with higher pressure building across the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a southern stream ridge developing over the Southern Plains, and this ridge will be spreading rapidly eastward today. After a cool start this morning (with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s and patchy frost), high temperatures will reach the upper 50s (around Dothan and Albany) to mid 60s (around Cross City). Sunshine will be partially filtered at times through thin high clouds. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected. Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system, although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of possibilities, mainly close to the coast. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night with a light freeze possible across portions of the area. However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat. Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of the week. && .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Sunday] Occasional high cigs (around 25 kft) today will not impact general aviation. Vis will be unrestricted. Light N winds early this morning will veer to the E or even ESE at 5 to 9 KT by this afternoon. Some of the NWP guidance is forecasting MVFR cigs around KECP and KDHN by daybreak Sunday, but we will wait to address this possibility on our 18z TAF package, to see if this trend continues.
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&& .Marine... Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another system will bring increasing winds and seas once again. && .Fire Weather... RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily due to strong transport winds. && .Hydrology... The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts. These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of the forecast points. The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting high enough to produce more significant flooding. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 62 44 67 58 62 / 0 0 40 60 40 Panama City 60 49 64 55 59 / 0 0 70 60 30 Dothan 58 42 64 47 53 / 0 0 80 70 20 Albany 58 39 66 52 56 / 0 0 60 70 30 Valdosta 60 42 70 57 61 / 0 0 20 60 50 Cross City 65 44 72 59 65 / 0 0 10 50 50 Apalachicola 59 49 66 60 63 / 0 0 40 60 40 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...DVD

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