Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250958
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
558 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014
-- Changed Discussion --[Through 12z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through
the day. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will
develop across the area from southwest to northeast with VCTS
shown in the forecast for now. It would not be surprising to see
a few tempos for TSRA later today, but confidence in the coverage
and timing is not quite high enough to include tempos at this
-- End Changed Discussion --
.Prev Discussion [247 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --.Near Term [Today]...
Today will feature the same general pattern as yesterday. The
overnight analysis shows two upper level ridge centers, one across
the southern plains and the other off the east coast of Florida.
There is a break in between the two centers where very weak upper
level troughing exists. As we head through the day, the 1000-700
mb mean wind will once again be out of the southwest, yielding a
borderline type 4 or 5 sea breeze regime. This favors isolated to
scattered convection starting near the coast this morning and
spreading inland across the remainder of the area through the
afternoon hours. The ensemble of convection allowing models also
shows this general evolution, so the PoP forecast will once again
favor a blend of the CAMs and sea breeze climatology for today
with seasonable high temperatures.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
With an upper ridge centered over Texas and the mean East Coast
trough pulling north of the forecast area, there will be very
little in the way of synoptic scale forcing for the region through
the weekend. This will leave the seabreeze as the primary
mechanism for triggering convection for Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitable water values and mid-level temperatures should be
near seasonal normals, so PoP are weighted towards seabreeze
climo for west to southwest flow.
Temperatures will be warm as well, especially over the interior
where the onset of scattered thunderstorms will hold off until
later in the afternoon. Expect to see lower 90s south of I-10 and
mid 90s to the north.
.Long Term [Sunday night Through Friday]...
Expect the pattern to rapidly amplify by Monday as a large trough
digs southward out of Canada. Some of the guidance suggests this
trough will be strong enough to help push a cold front into and
possibly past the forecast area on Tuesday delivering another
brief but noticeable cool and dry period to the region through
Wednesday. The upper pattern thereafter looks to stagnate with
strong ridging building over the Rockies and across the Western
North Atlantic keeping the deep trough in place from the Ohio
Valley to the Northeastern Gulf. This will yield slightly cooler
and less humid conditions by the end of the period with only
modest rain chances.
Southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to remain in place
across the coastal waters into early next week as the subtropical
ridge axis stays south of the waters. By late Monday into Tuesday,
winds may increase to near exercise caution levels as a cold front
approaches from the north.
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although dispersion values will be high this afternoon across a
large portion of the inland Florida big bend.
Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain
will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
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.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 73 93 74 94 / 50 30 50 30 40
Panama City 88 76 89 77 90 / 30 20 30 30 30
Dothan 91 73 94 75 94 / 50 30 40 30 40
Albany 93 74 95 75 95 / 40 30 30 20 30
Valdosta 96 72 93 73 93 / 40 40 40 30 40
Cross City 91 72 92 72 93 / 50 20 40 30 30
Apalachicola 89 76 88 76 89 / 30 20 30 20 30