Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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053 FXUS62 KTAE 311953 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 353 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT INCLUDES TWO OF OUR SE AL ZONES AND OUR NORTHERN TIER GEORGIA ZONES UNTIL 8 PM EDT. AT 18Z, THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE WATCH MOST OF OUR CWA HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL BE TAPERED HIGHEST NORTH (50%) TO LOWEST (10%) SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. .SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]... A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A WEAK VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED TO BE SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER, SO WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL, THE OVERALL THREAT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. WITH LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM AND THE LOSS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS AND LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]... THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. SOME NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT - ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID 40S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THIS TIME WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] THE DHN AND ABY TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AFTER CONVECTION DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. EXPECT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AFTER WEDNESDAY BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND VALDOSTA AREA OF GEORGIA ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 62 84 58 82 56 / 20 30 20 20 10 PANAMA CITY 65 78 59 78 60 / 10 20 10 10 10 DOTHAN 61 82 58 82 57 / 30 30 20 20 10 ALBANY 59 82 58 81 57 / 40 40 20 30 10 VALDOSTA 62 83 59 81 58 / 30 40 20 20 10 CROSS CITY 62 82 59 81 59 / 10 30 20 10 10 APALACHICOLA 65 77 59 76 59 / 10 20 20 10 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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