Area Forecast Discussion
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209 FXUS62 KTAE 011632 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1132 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2015 .Near Term [Rest of Today]...
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Although the synoptic surface cold front is still well to our west, in Arkansas and NE Texas as of 16Z, northward low-level moisture flux to the west of ABY-TLH is contributing to increasing low stratus and some light showers. A larger area of rain and showers was situated just to our west, and that is expected to pivot into SE Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Models are in fairly good agreement with respect to timing of the primary band of rain. Therefore, we sharpened up the timing of highest PoPs in the forecast grids and that should be reflected in the new update. In general, the best rain chances prior to 00Z will be west of a Panama City to Blakely line. By 06Z, they should advance into the Apalachicola, to Tallahassee, to Tifton corridor, exiting the remainder of our area late in the overnight hours or early Monday morning. Marginal instability should support some embedded thunderstorms. With the increasing stratus in the western-most counties in our area, and rain expected to begin shortly, we lowered temperatures for the rest of the day. 16Z temperatures were in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and they shouldn`t get much higher than that. Elsewhere, it will be a warm January day with highs around 70.
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&& .Prev Discussion [322 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... A cold front will be progressing through the area tonight with numerous showers across the area. Instability looks limited, so severe weather is still not expected, although an isolated rumble of thunder remains possible. Some showers are expected to linger across the eastern half of the area on Monday morning with clearing area-wide on Monday afternoon. A light freeze is possible behind the front for Monday night with high pressure and mostly sunny skies on Tuesday. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The pattern remains progressive with the next system still on track to affect the area in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. While there are still some timing differences in the guidance, the highest PoPs currently appear to be Wednesday night into Thursday across the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the area of low pressure staying offshore with warm frontal rain, so instability looks too low to support any mention of thunder over the land area at this time. Although another brief cool down is expected behind this system, there doesn`t appear to be any arctic air on the horizon for the next several days. .Aviation... [Through 12z Monday] Clouds will increase with CIGS possibly lowering to IFR levels at DHN around daybreak and spreading eastward to eventually include the remainder of the terminals by late afternoon/early evening. Light rain will also overspread the region today and tonight with a few thunderstorms possible mainly at the DHN and ECP terminals. Winds will be gusty and southerly today. .Marine... Advisory conditions are likely through Monday both ahead of and behind a cold front across most of the area. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front today will shift to the northwest behind the front on Monday with seas of 5 to 7 feet across most of the area. Some improvement is expected for Tuesday before another increase in winds and seas is possible by mid to late week as another area of low pressure moves through the region. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected at least through the upcoming workweek. .Hydrology... The first system for this afternoon through Monday morning is expected to produce mainly less than 1" of rain across the area, although a couple of isolated amounts heavier than 1" are possible across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The second system during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame is expected to produce a bit more rainfall with a general 1-2" possible. When combined with the rains from the first system and already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting high enough to produce more significant flooding.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 58 61 31 58 / 20 80 40 0 0 Panama City 67 54 58 35 55 / 70 80 30 0 0 Dothan 62 48 51 30 55 / 80 80 20 0 0 Albany 70 52 55 29 54 / 40 80 30 0 0 Valdosta 72 58 60 32 57 / 10 80 50 0 0 Cross City 72 60 63 31 61 / 10 70 60 0 0 Apalachicola 66 59 62 35 55 / 50 70 40 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through Monday evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...DVD

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