Area Forecast Discussion
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632 FXUS62 KTAE 250133 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 933 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The last few frames of visible satellite before sunset, and now the 11-3.9 micron satellite loops show some low stratus expanding inland over the Florida Panhandle coast. Most of this has remained low stratus so far, with none of the observing sites reporting fog of any significance yet. Model consensus expands this stratus layer across the rest of our forecast area overnight, so the sky grids were updated to show mostly cloudy to overcast skies by later tonight. The big question is whether or not any fog can develop, or the stratus layer lowers enough to produce some fog where the boundary layer can decouple more. The SREF probabilities suggest a 50-70% chance of less than 1 mile visibilities over much of our forecast area by 12z Friday, while the NARRE near term ensemble probabilities are quite a bit less. We felt there was enough of a chance to warrant including fog everywhere in our forecast area, with some patchy dense fog wording in some areas. The increased cloud cover could keep temperatures a bit warmer overnight, so the low temperatures were nudged up slightly.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Saturday] Another round of IFR to LIFR level VIS and CIGS is expected to develop at all of the terminals (except ABY which is fcst to remain MVFR) tonight into Friday morning in the moistening onshore flow. The most pessimistic fcst is ECP which may drop to these low levels before midnight, then not lift and break out until 11 AM Friday. Also, VFR conditions should return and prevail for the remainder of the terminals by late morning, with somewhat gusty W-SW winds for the afternoon as a weakening cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .Prev Discussion [305 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... A short wave will pass well north of the region on Friday as it swings from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold front will reach the northwestern part of the forecast area in the afternoon and then become stationary between I-10 and the coast Friday night. There will be little forcing for ascent over the weakening boundary and PoPs were kept in the silent 10 category. The front will begin lifting north again as a warm front on Saturday as the yet another low pressure system deepens over the Great Plains. Temps will generally be about 3-5 degrees above normal through the period. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Upper level ridging is in place for the start of the period with a surface high off to the east keeping the area dry. An upper level low over the central plains will strengthen and become cutoff as it moves slowly to the east. Moisture and instability will return to the region Monday and the associated front will move through Wednesday afternoon and evening. A low level jet will be over the area with wind speeds up to 45 knots on Tuesday. GFS and Euro are showing SBCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will increase to 35-40 kts over our far western zones with most of that in the 0-1 km layer. Therefore, some storms could be strong to marginally severe during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Storms will linger into Wednesday until frontal passage brings in some drier air. .Marine... Onshore winds will generally be light with some enhancement near the coast in the afternoon sea breeze. Winds will increase early next week with cautionary conditions possible by Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Minimum relative humidities will be in the 30s and 40s and will not be low enough to reach red flag criteria. Dispersion values will be in the 60s for most of the area tomorrow, decreasing to the 30s for Saturday. .Hydrology... Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most area rivers have already crested with the exception of the Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. At this time, QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 61 84 60 86 58 / 0 10 0 0 0 Panama City 64 78 63 80 64 / 0 10 10 0 10 Dothan 61 83 58 86 59 / 0 10 0 0 0 Albany 60 84 58 86 57 / 10 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 59 85 60 86 57 / 10 10 10 0 0 Cross City 60 83 60 84 58 / 0 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 64 78 63 79 62 / 0 10 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WESTON/WOOL AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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