Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231758
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
158 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The main focus continues to be on the oppressive heat and humidity
across the region. As of 1PM all of our ASOS sites were in the
middle to upper 90s with Tallahassee leading the way with 98
degrees. Dewpoints were holding in the lower 70s still for most
locations, though a pocket of cooler dewpoints is starting to mix
down across south-central Georgia. A larger area of dry air aloft
was noted over south Georgia today compared to yesterday.
Essentially what this means is that across Georgia, expect heat
indices to be their highest (btwn 108-110) in the early
afternoon, gradually decreasing thereafter as deep mixing becomes
fully established. Elsewhere, dewpoints will remain relatively
high and be slower to mix out. All of north Florida should expect
heat indices above 108 for a long duration today. Nearer to the
coast and along the Panhandle, expect excessive heat index values
(btwn 110 and 114), due to the fact that mixing won`t be as
effective and to the overall proximity to the Gulf.

Not much convection developing as of yet, though still expect a
modest scattering of storms along the Panhandle and Big Bend
seabreeze fronts beginning within the next couple of hours.
Locations outside of Florida will most likely not see any
meaningful rain, though an isolated, short-lived, shower may be
possible here-and-there. Some gusty winds will be possible with
the strongest storms across north Florida due to the drier mid-
level air in place.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday night]...
For much of Sunday, the powerful and hot upper ridge will maintain
control over the region, with temperatures forecast to reach
triple digits once again for many locations. However, by mid to
late afternoon, a trough digging down the eastern seaboard will
push a backdoor cold front into south central Georgia. Along
with the front, expect to see a bit more cloud cover and increased
rain chances, especially northwest of a line from Cross City to
Albany. This should keep temperatures sub-100 in these areas.

However, southwest of the front, the extreme heat will continue.
Heat indices are once again forecast to reach at least 108 during
the afternoon, so have issued a Heat Advisory for these areas.

By Monday, northeasterly flow will increase as high pressure noses
down the eastern seaboard. Expect to see a few storms early in the
day over the southwestern portion of the forecast area. However,
PoPs will be minimal elsewhere as a much drier low-level airmass
moves in. The airmass will be `cooler` as well, with high
temperatures only expected to reach the lower to mid 90s Monday
afternoon.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry
airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances
well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal.
Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the
ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase
significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will
remain relatively low.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] Outside of a small window where
thunderstorms will be possible at ECP, VFR conditions should
prevail through the entire TAF.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly to northwesterly winds will continue over the coastal
waters through Sunday before shifting to the northeast Sunday
night into Monday as a backdoor front moves across the region.
Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria late on Monday
before diminishing during the day on Tuesday. Winds and seas will
decrease further by the middle of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
for the next several days, precluding any hazardous fire weather
conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend,
however no impacts are expected on river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76 100  77  94  72 /  20  30  30  20  10
Panama City   80  97  79  92  74 /  20  20  30  30  10
Dothan        75  98  75  92  70 /  10  40  30  20   0
Albany        76  97  74  91  70 /  10  50  30  10   0
Valdosta      73  99  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  10  10
Cross City    75  99  75  93  71 /  20  50  30  20  10
Apalachicola  79  96  79  92  75 /  20  20  30  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal
     Dixie-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT








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