Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 271604

1104 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis shows the dry cold front associated with
the clipper system moving through the Carolinas had passed through
the forecast area. Not too much in the way of drier air behind
this system, but it has provided a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
High pressure across the Central Plains will move eastward today.
With sunny skies, but weak cold advection, expect highs only in
the lower 60s in North Florida and in the upper 50s across
Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


Winds have decreased slightly across the near shore legs to the
point that the small craft advisory can be discontinued. Further
offshore winds remain around 20 knots with seas slow to subside.
With the offshore buoys occasionally reporting 8 and 9 foot seas,
will extend the SCA through Friday morning as a slight increase in
offshore winds is expected overnight.


.Prev Discussion [323 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move
east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually
building in over the local region. The position of the surface high
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday.
Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should
see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below
average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible
Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising
heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on
Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with
the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the
period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain
with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday.
Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually
moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower
50s by Wednesday night.


[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be
gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up
around 20 mph.

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived
today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will
be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red
flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after
several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once
again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and
inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.


The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  32  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  39  56  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  32  55  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      60  31  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  32  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  39  57  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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