Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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119
FXAK69 PAFG 302232
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW FAR NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY DRIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUN. LOW NEAR ADAK MOVING TO BRISTOL BAY 4AM SAT THEN DRIFTING
EAST AND WEAKENING. SMALL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT MOVING TO DAWSON CANADA
4PM FRI THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST.

SURFACE...1005 MB LOW NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY MOVING NORTHEAST WITH
A 1017 MB HIGH ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA MOVING TO BARROW BY LATE SAT
AM. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW ACROSS BANKS ISLAND TO THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THEN TO TANANA WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
EAST TONIGHT. 974 MB LOW 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL
MOVE TO OUTER BRISTOL BAY AT 970 MB 4PM FRI...THEN ROTATE AROUND
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH 4PM SUN WEAKENING TO 986 MB.

MODELS...MODELS DIFFER ON ON LOCATION OF THE INCOMING LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA. THOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE LOW IS SIMILAR AMONG
THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF...THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ITS SECONDARY
CENTER DIFFER WIDELY ALONG THE LATITUDE OF 68 NORTH. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS DIFFERENCE IS NOT THAT
IMPORTANT HOWEVER AS THE MAIN EFFECT IS TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM MOVES THE SMALL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT MORE
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WHILE THE PREFERRED GFS MOVES MOST OF
THE ENERGY INTO CANADA.

NORTH SLOPE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH FLURRIES AND STATUS
GENERALLY PERSISTING. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT WEST OF
WAINWRIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BERING SEA LOW MOVING NORTH AND THE
ARCTIC HIGH REMAINING CLOSE.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER ALL COASTAL AREAS AND TO SOME EXTENT INLAND. SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REAMIN BELOW WARNING LEVEL THOUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT NEW
SNOWFALL EXPECTED. NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MAY
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED SURF LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

INTERIOR...THE SMALL UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH FROM YAKUTAT IS
PROVIDING SNOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE EASTERN UPPER YUKON VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
MUCH LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE DELTANA...MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY...DENALI AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. SNOW WILL
MOSTLY BE OVER BY FRI EVENING. A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WHILE WEAKENING SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE IS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW MON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL OCT 14



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