Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

495
FXAK69 PAFG 312015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1215 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU
NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WIDELY OVER THE BERING SEA FRI AND
OVER THE ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WIDELY DIFFERING OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

A WEAK UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLOWLY THROUGH FRI AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA WEST
COAST...THEN BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE BERING
SEA FRI AS THE GFS/NAM BRING AN UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE SYSTEM EASTWARD...ECMWF SOLUTION CARRIES ONLY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS.

MODERATELY STRONG EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH ONLY
VERY SLOWLY THROUGH WED EVENING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR
EAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO WED.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED...CONTINUING OVER
THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WED NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT
MAY PUMP SOME MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR THU NIGHT AND FRI...SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THOSE AREAS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND WED...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF MAR 15



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.