Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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694
FXAK69 PAFG 211834
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1034 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM AND MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE IN THE LONG RANGE
WITH RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS EXHIBITING LARGE
DIFFERENCES FROM DIFFERENT MODEL FAMILIES.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 512 DAM LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAK AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE
IT WILL ABSORB A 516 DAM LOW JUST OFF THE COAST FROM SITKA. THE
LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 52N AND 145W WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A 500 DAM LOW OVER SIBERIA MOVES EAST INTO
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BEFORE STALLING OVER THE BERING STRAIT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1041 MB HIGH REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 80N
AND 175W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A 970 MB LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO CREATE STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE. STRONG WIND HEADLINES REMAIN
IN THESE AREAS AS WIND GUSTS STILL REACHING INTO THE 40S AND NEAR
50 MPH...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
PLACE AS A 980 MB LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE BERING STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AND WESTERN ALASKA ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS IT OUTRUNS ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A
THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP AS THE FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF SIBERIA MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH. LOW CEILINGS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SLOPE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



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