Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
848
FGUS74 KLIX 071507 CCA
ESFLIX
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-
103-105-109-117-121-125-MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-082300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
900 AM CST FRI MARCH 7 2014

...2014 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN SPRING 2014 WILL GENERALLY BE
AVERAGE...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO OUTLINE CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION - DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS EXPERIENCED GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  A
SYSTEM THIS WEEK PRODUCED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SNOW, WHICH AS ALL MELTED.

TEMPERATURES - COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCED FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR
SEVERAL OF THIS WINTER`S PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AGAIN IN
MID-MARCH FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) - SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH CONTINUES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 6 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NORTHEAST IOWA, AND NORTH ILLINOIS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
RECENT STORMS HAVE GENERATED SNOW DEPTH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE
JUNCTION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS.

NO SNOW COVER EXISTS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS, IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THIS SNOW SHOULD MELT OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. COLDER GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED MANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO GENERATE MORE RUNOFF THAN IN PAST
YEARS.

FLOODING - NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.


EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
OHIO, MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHER
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EQUAL CHANCES ELSEWHERE.


MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ON
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.

WARMER TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOW UPSTREAM. WELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE CRESTS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOWMELT AND RAIN ARE
APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:

                                            3/6
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS    115%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS    118%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER   RED RIVER LANDING LA    108%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         BATON ROUGE LA    103%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         NEW ORLEANS LA    102%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER          SIMMESPORT LA    102%


PEARL RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SEVERAL RECENT FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS
THE PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE ENTIRE
PEARL RIVER BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NEW FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A
PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS      46%
PEARL RIVER                  BOGALUSA LA      60%


AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS...

RAINFALL IN FEBRUARY PRODUCED PERIODS OF MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS
A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
AMITE RIVER                DARLINGTON LA      56%
AMITE RIVER            DENHAM SPRINGS LA      93%
COMITE RIVER             OLIVE BRANCH LA     128%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER               FOLSOM LA      82%
TICKFAW RIVER                  HOLDEN LA      76%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER               ROBERT LA     104%



PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS CAUSED PERIODS OF
FLOODING OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LOWER BASIN.
NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN
ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
PASCAGOULA RIVER              MERRILL MS      60%


2014 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION IS AVERAGE.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER
AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT; COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND
EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN
DOWNSTREAM OF JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI TO THE GULF COAST.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AMITE...COMITE...
AND OTHER NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASIN.

STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014.


PLEASE DIRECT COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS TO:
PATRICIA BROWN
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LA
(985) 645-0565 EXT. 228

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.