Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1215 PM CST THU MARCH 5 2015

...2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN SPRING 2015 WILL GENERALLY BE
AVERAGE...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO OUTLINE CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION - OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES - COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCED FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR
SEVERAL OF THIS WINTER`S PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AGAIN IN
MID-MARCH FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) - SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 0.5
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 20 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
IN KENTUCKY.

SNOW DEPTH - SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 20 INCHES WITH SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRED
RECENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED
SNOW COVER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THIS SNOW
SHOULD MELT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FLOODING - MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER IN
LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE LOWER PEARL RIVER.


EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.


MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS...

DURING THE EARLY WINTER...MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER...WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS...CONDITIONS IMPROVED AS A RESULT OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  STREAMFLOW CONDITONS ON THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE CURRENTLY AT NORMAL LEVELS.

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY...MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:

                                             3/4
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS     87%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS     96%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER   RED RIVER LANDING LA     76%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         BATON ROUGE LA     77%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         NEW ORLEANS LA     74%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER          SIMMESPORT LA     77%


PEARL RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAUSED FLOODING ACROSS
THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE
UPPER PEARL RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

THE LOWER PEARL BASIN IS STILL EXPERIENCING RISES FROM UPSTREAM.
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
PEARL RIVER                   JACKSON MS     146%
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS     179%
PEARL RIVER                  BOGALUSA LA     135%


AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS...

DURING THE WINTER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS PRODUCED MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
AMITE RIVER                DARLINGTON LA     195%
AMITE RIVER            DENHAM SPRINGS LA     535%
COMITE RIVER             OLIVE BRANCH LA     392%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER               FOLSOM LA     452%
TICKFAW RIVER                  HOLDEN LA     279%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER               ROBERT LA     282%


PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WINTER HAS LED TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
PASCAGOULA RIVER              MERRILL MS     110%


2015 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER
AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT; COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND
EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN
DOWNSTREAM OF JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI TO THE GULF COAST.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AMITE RIVER...
COMITE RIVER...AND OTHER NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASIN.

STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2015.


PLEASE DIRECT COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS TO:
PATRICIA BROWN
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LA
(985) 645-0565 EXT. 228

$$













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