Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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577
FXUS64 KLIX 150052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM 500MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. ABOVE 500MB...THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND WHICH INDICATES
THAT A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WHERE THE RIDGING IS STRONGEST THERE IS A REGION OF
MUCH DRIER AIR. THIS DRIER AIRMASS IS SITUATED FROM 550MB UP TO
350MB AND IS ALSO A REGION WHERE SOME SLIGHT WARMING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS GREATER SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRED TODAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THESE WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPRATURES HAVE
INCREASED THE LAPSE RATE BELOW 850MB AND INCREASED OVERALL SURFACE
BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND DRIER AIR
IN PLACE ALOFT...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN GREATLY LIMITED
EVEN WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THUS...ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TODAY...AND HAS ONLY FORMED
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SUCH AS
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  89  71  87 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  30  50
ASD  72  89  73  89 /  30  40  30  60
MSY  77  90  76  89 /  30  50  40  60
GPT  74  89  74  88 /  30  50  40  60
PQL  73  89  72  88 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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