Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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220
FXUS64 KLIX 310132
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
832 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE MID
LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.97 INCHES...DOWN FROM
2.29 INCHES IN THE 12Z RELEASE THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...BUT LESS SO
THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE SOUNDING EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 400
MB...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OBSERVED ABOVE THAT LEVEL. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
EVEN CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS BUT NOTHING TOO
MAJOR OVER OUR AREA. WIND GUSTS WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE
REACHED INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE BUT THAT WAS AN EXTREME CASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SOME AND WE DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
GUSTS TO GET THAT HIGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE STRONG CONVECTION WEAKENING SOME HOWEVER THERE IS
MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST FROM BATON ROUGE AND POINTS SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WE DO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO BREAK UP SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW WE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN
KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
MOSTLY MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...SO NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CIGS. 18

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING SLIGHTLY
OVER 15 KNOTS AT SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...PERHAPS
A BIT HIGHER OVER THE FAR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE LOWER
END ON WEDNESDAY.TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING RADAR.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  74  91 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  75  92  75  91 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  75  91  75  91 /  50  20  30  30
MSY  78  91  79  91 /  50  20  30  30
GPT  77  91  76  90 /  60  20  30  30
PQL  75  91  76  90 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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