440
FXUS64 KLIX 161812
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
112 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CHANGED PROB30 GROUPS TO TEMPO/S AND ADDED VCSH TO A
FEW TERMINALS AS RADAR TRENDS DEPICT. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM VFR
TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CLOUD DECKS MOVE IN AND OUT AND
SHOWERS CROSS OVER TAF SITES. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. -BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH AN
EXTENSION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE IF ANY REMNANTS
OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE IDENTIFIABLE OVER OUR AREA.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST
HOUR OVER THE GULF NEAR SOUTHWEST PASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS BETWEEN 70
AND 75.

SHORT TERM...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SUPPRESS UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWARD
FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE...GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE...EACH AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH MAY REACH THE AREA...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
AGAIN EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA...IT
APPEARS THAT ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH...IN THE FORM OF
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL OCCUR TO TEMPER AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION
OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RIDGE AGAIN RETREATS WESTWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON THOSE
DAYS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. A FEW OF
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. 11

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  40
BTR  73  93  74  93 /  10  20  10  30
ASD  73  91  73  90 /  10  30  10  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  10  30
GPT  74  89  75  88 /  20  40  10  30
PQL  73  90  74  88 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$