767
FXUS64 KLIX 230123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
823 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS EVENING. DESPITE AIR MASS BEING
WORKED OVER BY QLCS THIS MORNING...MOISTURE RECOVERED WITH 5
DEGREE OR LESS SPREAD FROM SURFACE TO 630 MB...RESIDUAL
ALTOCUMULUS DECK AT 11 KFT WITH SATURATED LAYER INDICATED UNDER
ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 630 MB TO 560 MB...THEN A DRY
COLUMN ALOFT. WINDS CALM AT SURFACE QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWEST 15-20KT
TO 10KFT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST INTO LOWER STRATOSPHERE 20-60KT.
PEAK WIND 265/56KT AT 43.3KFT. BALLOON TERMINATED AT 33239M/109051
FT OR 20.6 MILES OVER WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR BAYOU LACROIX.
THE FLIGHT DID REACH AS FAR EAST AS HOLLYWOOD CASINO AREA 26 MILES
DOWNRANGE BEFORE EASTERLY WINDS IN UPPER STRATOSPHERE BROUGHT THE
BALLOON WITHIN 12 MILES OF LAUNCH SITE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT TERREBONNE AND
POSSIBLY LAFOURCHE PARISHES BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

A TROF WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEDGE OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHSHORE.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE QUITE POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE AFTERNOON
SUMMER LIKE STORM BY MID WEEK.

7/ARM

AVIATION...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  65  90  65 /  70  10  20  20
BTR  86  68  91  69 /  80  10  20  10
ASD  85  68  89  68 / 100  10  20  20
MSY  85  70  88  71 / 100  10  20  10
GPT  83  68  87  69 / 100  10  20  20
PQL  85  67  87  66 /  90  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$