Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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848
FXUS64 KLIX 300056
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/S SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE
NORTHSHORE BY LAUNCH TIME WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHOWER IN THE HOUR BEFORE LAUNCH WHICH ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF A
SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVELS WERE
FAIRLY SATURATED AS DRIER AIR WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. TOMORROW MORNING/S SOUNDING WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL BE WELL UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURE
AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL TONIGHT IS LOWER /COOLER/ THAN WHAT IT WAS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME /NOT TOO SURPRISING/. WINDS WERE CALM AT THE
SURFACE WHEN THE BALLOON WAS RELEASED...BUT WAS BRISKLY TAKEN
TOWARD LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FROM THE LAUNCH SITE WITH WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH ABOUT 8000 FEET. THEN WINDS WERE
PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST FROM 8000 FEET TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 47 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 25500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: TONIGHT/S FLIGHT LASTED 106 MINUTES AND ATTAINED A
HEIGHT OF 20.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING SOUTH OF
GULFPORT NEAR CAT ISLAND 47 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE LAUNCH SITE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A NARROW
AND BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ASSUMING THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD AS FORECAST...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

A 1030MB HIGH SLIDING SOUTHWARD WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
COLDER. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR
THIS SEASON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AM STILL A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN AREAS. AM
CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE LAKE AND IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE. BIGGEST RISE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY
06Z...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS NO
LATER THAN 12Z.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND MAY BRIEFLY
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF CAUTION CRITERIA WILL
OCCUR...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS
WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOME MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  73  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  52  75  49  73 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  50  76  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  59  75  55  74 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  54  76  47  74 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  49  75  43  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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