Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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586
FXUS64 KLIX 190134
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS. THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OUT THERE HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AT THIS POINT. MLCAPE WAS CALCULATED AT 2400 J/KG AND
THE LIFTED INDEX WAS ALMOST -8. WINDS WERE GENERALLY WESTERLY UP
TO 7.2 MILES AND THEN PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A PEAK WIND OF 21
KNOTS WAS LOCATED AROUND 6.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: WE HAD TO LAUNCH TWO BALLOONS THIS EVENING AS
THE FIRST BALLOON LOST GPS SIGNAL. SECOND BALLOON WAS SUCCESSFUL
AND BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND OVER MANDEVILLE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH OMEGA TO THE AREA TO THE PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WANES. ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT
TO KEEP SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
SHEARING OUT...AND EXPECT LESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM...WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT
WILL COMPLETELY SHEAR OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...AND A STRONG 595 H5
RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS STRONG RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HAVE KEPT IN TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THE RISK OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEABREEZE.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX READINGS TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS...AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
WILL RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE WARM...WITH READINGS ONLY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN METRO
NEW ORLEANS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
WITH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIMITED TO ANY
LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH INCREASED FORCING ALOFT
IN PLACE AND CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE AUGUST
AS THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR MOST TERMINALS AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS TO UPDATE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS WEEK...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE AND FALL TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMA
OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  76  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  92  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  91  75  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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