342
FXUS64 KLIX 170837
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION OF LATE CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS...ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...CARVING OUT A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED
WITH WITH PASSING WEAK IMPULSES...LOWERED HEIGHTS AND AMPLE
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MID TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NOSE INTO THE
MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FORM NORTHERN MEXICO LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCE MAY CREEP UPWARD
AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAKNESS ALOFT LEFT BEHIND BY THE
DEPARTED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 18Z WHEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BEGINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COVERAGE...WILL ADD VCTS TO ALL SITES.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z. AM

&&

.MARINE...
WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS THE LAKES AND
GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF WATERS. AM

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
BTR  93  74  92  74 /  20  20  30  20
ASD  92  72  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  93  76  91  76 /  20  20  30  20
GPT  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$