Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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353
FXUS64 KLIX 282104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  46  77  58 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  50  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  44  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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