Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
773
FXUS64 KLIX 210555
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

DID MINOR UPDATE TO WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN WHERE THE POP IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR NOW. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OFFSHORE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ABOVE 600MB AS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER COMPARED
TO WHAT WAS MEASURED THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN
SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. A PEAK WIND OF 57 KNOTS WAS AT 40500 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 31.4
MILES DOWNRANGE SOUTH OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
24/RR

AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG
PRONE TAF SITES. 11

MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  84  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  69  89  61  85 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  74  88  66  84 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  73  88  69  84 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  75  88  67  83 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  75  89  66  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.