881
FXUS64 KLIX 190138 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE
TO 830 MB/5.9KFT...PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 150 MB/46.6KFT. MOIST
SOUNDING WITH LESS THAN 6 DEGREE SPREAD SURFACE TO 667 MB/11.3KFT.
WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL OR SLOW VEERING SW-W 5-20 KT SURFACE TO
28.3KFT THEN BACKING TO SW 10-20KT TO 43.9KFT...THEN NW 30 KT AT
TROPOPAUSE. PEAK WIND 289/28KT AT 46.7KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.69
INCHES WITH LIFTED INDEX ONLY -3.7. CAPE 1871 J/KG IS WEAK SUPPORT
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEEP CONVECTION AND CAPE DIMINISHES GREATLY AS
LOWER COLUMN COOLS INTO THE MID 70S.

CHAP OUTPUT USING 344K LIFT FROM 941MB YIELDS A RICKS INDEX OF
ONLY 63...WITH A GUST POTENTIAL OF 17 KT...NO HAIL OR TORNADO
THREAT. RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS RESPECTABLE WITH 3-5 INCHES
ACCUMULATED POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING ECHOES. THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND NO UPDATES REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME.

FINALLY...BALLOON TERMINATED AT 9.5 MB /31731 M/104104 FT/19.7
MILES UP OVER THE VILLAGE OF ST. TAMMANY NEAR HORSESHOE ISLAND
ROAD AND HIGHWAY 434 ONLY 5.4 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE LAUNCH PAD.

24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EXTENDING FROM
EAST TN THROUGH NORTHERN AL...MS AND LA AND INTO EAST CENTRAL TX.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.

LOCAL TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR JUST OVER 70 DEGREES. SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR.

SHORT TERM... BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 36 TO
48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS STILL OFF TO THE NORTH...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
CONTINUED ELEVATED POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO DRY
AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE RIDGING WILL ONLY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A SHORT PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AVIATION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. LARGER
CLUSTER IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ATTM THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF A BTR TO ASD LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH CLOSES IN ON THE AREA.

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND UNTIL THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES OVER.
SUBSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THIS WEAK BUT
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS FROM 5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  69  92 /  40  40  30  20
BTR  73  90  71  92 /  50  50  30  20
ASD  73  90  71  91 /  50  50  30  20
MSY  75  90  74  91 /  50  50  30  20
GPT  75  89  72  89 /  50  50  30  20
PQL  73  90  70  91 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$