Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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378
FXUS64 KLIX 130047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SOUNDING WAS TAKEN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SOUNDING INDICATES A FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH
EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF OVER 200 M2/S2 AND A BULK
SHEAR VALUE OF 22 M2/S2. CAPE IS DECENT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
THE LCL REMAINS VERY LOW AT AROUND 2500 FEET. THESE FACTORS ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE FORMATION OF
SOME DEEPER UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK AT LESS THAN 6
DEGREES/KM...BASICALLY FOLLOWING THE MOIST ADIABAT UP TO THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. THESE WEAK LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS WILL KEEP HAIL FORMATION AT BAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALSO LESS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT...AND RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  78  66  78 /  70  80  50  80
BTR  68  80  68  80 /  70  80  50  80
ASD  69  80  69  80 /  70  80  50  80
MSY  70  80  70  80 /  60  80  50  70
GPT  70  78  71  78 /  70  80  40  70
PQL  70  79  71  81 /  70  80  40  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ046-049-056>070.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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