Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
873
FXUS64 KLIX 192133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUT OF THE FREEZER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS HELP MODERATE THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HELPED US COOL OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
MAINTAIN WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL REACH THE MID 60S AND REACH INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY. TONIGHT
SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE 30S AS LOW TEMPERATURES UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AS WE AWAIT AN APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. 13/MH

THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING OUT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
TEXAS...IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS PATCHY OVER OUR AREA IN THE 12Z MODELS
WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT. SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AND
BEST CLOSER TO THE LOW. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS OUR CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER SHEAR OF 70 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
PLAUSIBLE AND CIPS ANALOGS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIGNAL OVER
OUR AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER SO WE/LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH
IT TOO. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 TIMES THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THAT FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...THE COLD AIR
WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND SO LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY AT THIS TIME. THE
COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAYBE BE NECESSARY DURING
THIS TIME. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
             AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  66  45  68 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  41  68  49  71 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  38  67  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  45  68  54  70 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  39  65  48  68 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  34  65  44  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.