Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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351
FXUS64 KLIX 242114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY HIGH AND
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH EXCEPTION TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
EURO CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW EJECTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.



&&

.AVIATION...

MRVR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS FROM 025-040 WERE OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
MSY...NEW...BTR...HOUMA AND ASD. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR 3 TO 5KFT OVER
ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI WILL WEST AND DISPLACE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE MCB...BTR...GPT...ASD
AND HSD. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AROUND HOUMA AIRPORT BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z
THURSDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST GULF TO CENTRAL. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. WHILE THE
LATER MODELS HAVE DECREASED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO 18 TO 21
KNOTS...THE FETCH HAS YIELDED SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT BUOY 42040 AND
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES EAST OF THE RIVER AND OPEN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE WITH THE TIDAL LAKES MOSTLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL INSERT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THIS
AREA. FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER
OFFSHORE WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TO BRING WINDS
DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WILL BE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

$$







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