Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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514
FXUS64 KLIX 241732
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT BTR AND HUM. AFTER
SUNSET...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN...WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTING
IN AT NEARLY ALL TERMINALS BY ABOUT 8Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING NEW ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. VERY DRY PROFILE THROUGHOUT
WITH JUST A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
0.75 INCHES. LIFTED INDEX -3.2. WINDS SE-SW 10-20KT SURFACE TO A
CALM LEVEL AT 9600 FT...NW-SW 10-70KT ABOVE WITH PEAK WIND
255/68KT AT 47.2KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY VERY PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING BY 8Z. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FCST ARE ON THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING IN HERE LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

TODAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH MAINLY SOME CU
DEVELOPING AS A WEAK SEABREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN ANTAGONIST
IN THE NEXT 24/48HRS IS A S/W CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES. AS IT MOVES INTO SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY IT WILL DRIVE A SFC LOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THIS EVNG
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK TO THE SW INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE SFC
LOW WILL THEN BECOME STACKED WITH THE S/W AS THEY BOTH MOVE INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION FRI. THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ZONAL. WITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE SOME MOMENTUM BUT
WILL STILL SLOWLY SINK INTO THE CWA EARLY FRI MORNING AND TWRDS THE
COAST FRI AFTN. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EARLY FRI BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW. HGHTS WILL
RISE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY LL
CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE
REGION.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT...EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET TO THE COAST MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY SET BACK UP DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY LEADING TO DEWPOINTS QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. /CAB/

LONG TERM...THE FCST BEGINS TO GET MORE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL CONUS AND MS VALLEY SUN THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST HAS NOT EVEN MOVED ONSHORE YET. THE L/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE PAC COAST FRI WITH A STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO CA FRI NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SAT NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PLAINS SUN. THE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST TWRDS THE MS VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY
GENERATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL IT REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MON AND THROUGH MON NIGHT AND IF WE HAVE SEVERE WEATHER IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL BE MON AFTN AND MON NIGHT.
THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT SO WILL KEEP FROM GETTING INTO TOO MUCH OF
THE DETAILS BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH EVEN
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION INTO THE REGION. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT AGAIN THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.

OUR LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PUSH
EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS THUS DRIVING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION AROUND WED AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /CAB/

MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NOW THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT TO THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY. ATTM...IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL BE TO WEAK TO REALLY EVEN
MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS POSSIBLE. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /MEFFER/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  62  83  55 /  10  20  20  10
BTR  85  66  84  59 /  10  20  20  10
ASD  82  63  80  62 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  82  66  82  65 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  80  62 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  79  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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