Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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115
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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