Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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636
FXUS64 KLIX 232015
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY FILTER SUNSHINE FOR ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOONS PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
CLOUDS DEPART TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN CLOUDINESS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE. TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER END WHERE THERE WAS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES...SO DO NOT REALLY EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE THE MINIMAL MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID AND LATE WEEK THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
NUMBERS...MAINLY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING AROUND 20K
FEET WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.  OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  AS A RESULT...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...

AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS TO END THIS EVENING OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.  SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TO 1
TO 3 FEET BY SATURDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  76  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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