Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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316
FXUS64 KLIX 200531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK TO BRING A TEMPO OF 4SM BR
AT A FEW LOCATIONS MORE PRONE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.65 TO 0.80 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOW COOLING INTO THE
40S.

LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS...MERGES WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE MERGED
SYSTEM WILL THEN SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES TO THE
EAST...A BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED OMEGA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS...A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A REGION OF
STRONG BAROCLINICITY. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN THE GULF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IN PLACE.
READINGS WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE LIMITED...SO OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...EXPECT ONLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH
AXIS. ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SHOT COLDER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON THE BACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THRUST OF THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF SEASONAL NORMS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS AS THIS
NEXT TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE THROUGH.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT WITH VERY
LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS DECK NORTH
OF A BTR TO HDC LINE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY MODERATE FOG
COULD IMPACT A GREATER NUMBER OF AIRPORTS DURING THE 06Z-14Z PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF IFR
CATEGORY VSBYS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

MEFFER/TD

MARINE...

WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE PERSISTENT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS
TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NEAR GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY EASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  69  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  43  70  48  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  43  69  47  69 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  48  69  48  69 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  45  67  48  69 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  43  69  45  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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